Written by 1912212.eth, Foresight News

After 4 years, the Federal Reserve finally announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut at this morning's meeting. The previously dull crypto market saw a significant pump after the interest rate decision was announced. BTC surged from a high of $59,000 to above $62,000, while ETH rose from $2,200 to break $2,400. Altcoins also benefited from the market boost, experiencing substantial gains. SEI saw a big pump of 22%, surpassing $0.34, while BLUR experienced a 17% surge, surpassing $0.2.

According to coingrass data, the total amount of Get Liquidated on the whole network in the past 24 hours was 199 million US dollars, of which 123 million US dollars were from short order Get Liquidated.

Looking back at the last cycle, after the Fed announced its first interest rate cut in years in September 2019, BTC did not respond to the Favourable Information news in the short term. Instead, the monthly chart fell 13.54%, from above $10,000, falling to around $8,300. Will the crypto market repeat history after this interest rate cut, or will it usher in a pump trend after Liquidity improves?

The Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in the coming months.

This rate cut far exceeded the consensus estimate of 25 basis points, and the direct rate cut was 50 basis points. At the press conference, Powell stressed that he does not believe that a sharp interest rate cut indicates that a United States recession is approaching or that the job market is on the verge of collapse, and that the rate cut is more of a preventive action to maintain the "sound" status quo of the economy and labor market.

After the dust settles, the market generally estimates that there will be further interest rate cuts in November and December, with an expected total of 70 basis points cut within the year. The published dot plot suggests a further 50 basis point cut within the year.

The market's general concern about the possibility of a US economic recession is decreasing, and the possibility of a soft landing is increasing.

Interest rate cuts will have sustained Favourable Information on risk assets. Although it may not take immediate effect, with the passage of time and the continuity of interest rate cuts, Liquidity in the market begins to flow from bonds, banks, and other markets into stocks, Crypto Assets, and other markets.

In addition, the upcoming US presidential election in early November this year will also bring short-term volatility to the encryption market. After the official announcement of the results, OTC funds that have been hesitant to enter the encryption market may start to continuously inject.

The current Spot market volume is still in a low state, maintaining a Fluctuation of around 600 billion US dollars overall. Excluding the transient Fluctuation caused by special macro events, the market's Liquidity still performs mediocre.

Bitcoin has increasingly become a macro asset that reflects the overall economic trend. When liquidity continues to be injected into the market, encryption quotes may sweep away past gloom.

BTC Spot ETF is still net inflow

As of September 17, the BTCSpot ETF has accumulated a total net inflow of 17.5 billion US dollars. The continuous net outflow from the end of August to the beginning of September for 8 consecutive days has ended, and since September 12, the BTCSpot ETF has achieved a net inflow for 4 consecutive days.

When BTC Spot ETF continues to see net inflows, BTC prices tend to remain stable and rise. However, when there is continuous large outflow, it often leads to a downward trend in the coin price.

Currently, after experiencing a long-term price volatility in the market, OTC funds are gradually regaining confidence and continue to buy.

Stable CoinMarket Cap continues to rise

The total market capitalization of USDT has increased from 117 billion US dollars to 118.7 billion US dollars in the past month, with a net inflow of nearly 1.7 billion US dollars. If calculated from the total market capitalization of 104.7 billion US dollars in April this year, USDT's market capitalization has still increased by a strong inflow of 14 billion US dollars during the overall consolidation and decline of the crypto market.

The market capitalization of another major stablecoin USDC has increased from $34.4 billion at the end of August to $35.5 billion, with a flow of $1.1 billion in less than a month.

The total Market Cap of stablecoins supporting Fiat Currency has also hit a historical high and continues to climb.

October has historically been a strong performing month

The interesting thing about the encryption market is that, like some stocks, it exhibits seasonal trends. For example, the market generally performs poorly in the summer, but performs well at the end and beginning of the year. BTC has achieved strong positive returns from 2015 to 2023, except for a decline in October 2018 due to the Bear Market.

In the second half of 2023, BTC also started to rise continuously from October, coupled with the expected approval of BTC Spot ETF, thus initiating a bull run.

Market View

encryption KOL Lark Davis: 2025 will be the peak of this cycle, and it is advisable to sell in time

In his latest video released on September 9th, encryption KOL Lark Davis, who has 500,000 fans on Youtube, stated that 2025 will be the peak of this cycle and should be sold and left. He gave the following reasons for this argument: The global liquidity cycle is expected to peak in 2025 and then decline. China's credit cycle is about four years per cycle, and 2025 may be the peak of China's credit. Currently, the yield of short-term bonds is higher than that of long-term bonds, but the yield curve is gradually returning to normal, which may indicate a change in the economic cycle. Therefore, he believes that there may be a huge market chaos in 2025, followed by a Bear Market.

Glassnode: The BTC market is in a stagnation period, with both supply and demand showing signs of inactivity

Crypto market data research firm Glassnode has stated that the BTC market is currently going through a period of stagnation, with both supply and demand showing signs of inactivity. Over the past two months, BTC's actual market capitalization has reached a peak and stabilized at $622 billion. This indicates that most tokens being traded are close to their original acquisition price. Since reaching its all-time high in March, the absolute realized profit and loss has significantly decreased, meaning that overall buying pressure has eased within the current price range.

Hyblock Capital: BTC market Depth exhaustion, may indicate bullish BTC price

Shubh Verma, Co-founder and CEO of Hyblock Capital, recently stated in an interview with CoinDesk: 'By analyzing the comprehensive Spot order book, especially the order books with Depth of 0%-1% and 1%-5%, we found that low liquidity in the order book usually coincides with market bottoms. These low order book levels may be early indicators of price reversals, often preceding bullish trends'.