BrotherJing.btc

Trading System Explanation

Indicators included: Divergence of tops and bottoms, tops and bottoms index, trend channel, support and resistance lines, risk warning

Divergence between tops and bottoms:

Bearish divergence - Shorting;

Divergence at the bottom-Long;

Trend Channel: (Channel Color)

Red-Only Long;

Green - short only;

Gray - short high and long low;

supportresistance line:

Key price levels valid for the day

Top-bottom index:

Near 70, 1-hour red candle, shorting;

Near 30, 1-hour closing yang column, go long;

Function Support: Single text reminder, single email reminder, quantitative automatic trading

Introduction to Top-Bottom Indicator

Upper right corner Top and bottom indices

Normal Fluctuation range 30~70;

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Upper Left Corner Graphic 1 Hour

Note: The red bars represent upward bars; the green bars represent downward bars.

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Logical Steps

AShort：

①When the top and bottom index rises to around 70

Wait for the 2nd hour chart to close with a bearish (green) candlestick.

③ Then select the entry point for shorting after 5 minutes.

④ Stop loss at the current highest price +5～10

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BLong:

①When the top and bottom index falls to around 30

2. Wait for a bullish (red) candlestick on the 1-hour chart

③ Then choose a position to enter Long after 5 minutes.

④ Set stop loss at current lowest price -5～10

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BTC belongs to POW, and is obtained by running a dedicated Mining Rig, providing Computing Power, and receiving BTC rewards.

So, BTC has a cost, also known as the "shutdown price".

Shutdown price = (unit electricity cost in the area where the Mining Rig is located/H multiplied by 24 hours) divided by the amount of BTC obtained in 24 hours

Currently

The 'shutdown price' for areas with low electricity costs is around 32000.

The 'shutdown price' in high electricity cost areas is around 55000.

Some frens think that because of the existence of the 'shutdown price', BTC will not fall below this price;

This is a misconception. In the past, BTC has fallen below the shutdown price.

Of course, the 'shutdown price' can also make us money.

A simple logic:

When the market price is lower than the intrinsic value of the commodity, it is a good time to buy and hold, that is, during the 'shutdown price' range, it is suitable to build a position in batches.

In the crypto world, one concept of making money is 'exchanging time for space'.

After BTC rose to 73000, it has been sideways for half a year, currently oscillating around 60000. So, can BTC still drop to the 4-digit range?

I think the probability of falling below 50 again is not small, and the probability of falling to 40,000 is relatively smaller.

The effective support prices below BTC are 49000 and 41000, and it has already reached near 49000 in early August, and is currently preparing for a second bottoming.

When there is a price Fluctuation, we not only need to predict the future trend and range, but also formulate our strategy based on the prediction, and how to achieve the desired profit.

If it falls to the 4s, I think that would be a good get on board opportunity; At least a 300% return is expected relative to the future high point.

BTC rose from around 15000 to around 73000, and then went sideways for about 6 months. With such a high price, is it still possible to buy the dip?

Personally, I think it's definitely possible.

First of all, it is necessary to know the relationship between BTC and the USD. They have an inverse correlation, which means that when the USD appreciates, BTC depreciates; when the USD depreciates, BTC appreciates.

Data Review:

In April 2021, the US Dollar Index fell to a low point around 89, starting to rise; BTC rose to a high point around 60000, starting to fall.

October 2022, the US Dollar Index rose to a high of around 113 and began to fall; BTC fell to a low of around 19000 and began to pump.

September 2023, the US dollar index started to decline near the pressure of 106 in the oscillation range; BTC started to pump near the support of 25000 in the oscillation range.

April 2024, the US dollar index rose to the pressure of around 106 in the sideways range, starting to decline; BTC was around 73,000 at its peak, starting a high-level Sideways oscillation.

The US dollar index is currently near the support level of 100 in the past two years, facing two choices:

①pump;

② Downward;

In the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been trying to push down the US dollar index through a series of measures, and has been regulating it all the time; from being cautious and worried about hard landing, causing a series of problems, it has finally come to the current possibility of soft landing.

Over the past 10 years, the Federal Reserve's accepted range for the U.S. dollar index should be around 95 (92~99).

With the Fed's interest rate cuts and other means, it is believed that the US dollar index will fall below the support level of 100 in the past two years and fall towards the position expected by the Fed.

So, when the US dollar index starts to fall, BTC also starts to pump; when the US dollar index falls below the position, I believe BTC will also break the previous high of 73000.

If you have a different opinion, feel free to leave a comment in the comment section.