Author: Digital Asset Research

Compiled by Peisen, BlockBeats

Editor's note: Digital Asset Research demonstrates the high probability of significant events or news occurring from August 6th to 12th through detailed data on the long aspects such as time range, price range, and time perspective. The article also compares the current market cycle with previous cycles, points out the time rules of market trend changes, and provides ample evidence combined with monthly and weekly chart analysis.

This is something I have been openly discussing for some time, but today I want to reiterate that there is evidence to suggest that there may be significant trends and emotional changes in the BTC and broader Cryptocurrency markets between August 6th and 12th.

Several months ago, I mentioned this time frame in the video outlook, which you can find here.

Today, I will present all the evidence gradually built based on the time range, price range, and time perspective. I think you will see a high probability of significant events or news occurring within this time window.

We will start from the monthly chart and go all the way to the daily chart to demonstrate the convergence of multiple factors that we see.

The monthly chart is the content we focused on following last week, but to further prove that we are in the same cycle, we also included the months of the previous two tops. As you can see, the previous two cycles are almost identical to the current one. The 33 months from the major high and the 20 months from the major low will place us in the time frame from July to September, which is the final low before a significant pump.

Now we know that time is on our side, but many people think this cycle is different because prices quickly reached historic highs. However, let's compare the current cycle to previous ones on a monthly chart.

The evidence is quite shocking. As you can see, except for 2012, the price in the first two cycles pumped just over 200% from the Bear Market low point, exactly at the time we are in now. You can see that this time is no different. In fact, time and price are exactly where they should be, neither overly extended as some commentators have said, nor beyond expectations.

Next, let's look at the weekly chart, there is more long content to discuss. First, we found that there is a major trend change every 30 weeks in this cycle. Interestingly, this 30-week cycle happens to fall between a major low and a major high, occurring at the same time. I will explain the reason in the next few charts, but for now, the next 30-week cycle happens to fall on the week of August 12th. The sum of these three 30-week cycles, counting from the Bear Market low, is exactly 90 weeks.

In addition, zoom in on the weekly chart. I noticed that from the high point in 2017 to the first significant high point in 2021, it took 174 weeks. August 12th will mark 174 weeks from the significant high point in April 2021, undoubtedly an important high point. Therefore, we are approaching the same time period between two important turning points, the high point in 2017 and the high point in April 2021.

Now, based on our evidence, the market is in a different phase, and in my view, the inflection point is more likely to occur in the form of a major low rather than a major high. But as I have always said, we often see a major high and low in this time window during these cycles.

The chart below shows this particular period in each cycle, as well as the situation at this time of year last year. As you can see, there is almost always a sharp pump in August, followed by a rapid decline, which can reach 20-50%. Unlike the other three charts last year, it was only in the second year of the cycle, but it showed the seasonal feature of this type of trend occurring in August.

It also shows that significant highs and lows appeared in the market around the 30-week turning point during this cycle, with a relatively tight time window.

Now let's take a look from a time perspective. Simply put, the time perspective refers to starting from a significant high or low point and calculating 30 calendar days to find trend changes. You just need to start with 30, then add 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, etc., and look for trend changes at these time points. The more concentrated the time points, the higher the importance of that day or week.

As shown in the chart below, all of these time measurements fall within a window of time angle. Within this period, we have several major highs and lows all pointing to the second week of August as a major convergence period.

Finally, from a time range perspective, the market has always followed a 150-day cycle pattern in this cycle: 155 days of pump and 150 days of consolidation. It is worth noting that the balance of market time should not be imbalanced. That is to say, the number of days the market falls should not exceed the number of days of pump. In a Bull Market, the time of market pump is usually longer than the time of decline, as shown in the chart below. If the number of days of market decline exceeds the previous 150 days and a new low point appears, this will not be a good sign.

Finally, taking into account the price range, time range, time perspective, and seasonal factors, we are approaching a mid-August window that could very likely be a trigger point for BTC. If this evidence is not sufficient, please note that the start date of the BTC chart is August 19th. I won't go into too much detail on this issue, but the birth date is significant, and August is typically the month when the major bull market begins.

This is why I am cautious here and waiting for the window to close before taking more aggressive action. Will we see ETH ETF finally start trading, followed by a rapid drop like BTC ETF? Or will we see more long political headlines causing election uncertainty? I'm not entirely sure what it will be, but it's definitely a period worth following and being patient with.