Original author: VIKTOR

Original translation: Peng SUN, Foresight News

GCR is an anonymous trader who rose to fame during the 2021 Bull Market for seemingly having a great grasp of market trends. As a well-known Short master with massive trading volume, his trading cases are impressive. For example, he openly shorted the top of DOGE in May 2021, shorted SHIB and Metaverse tokens in November 2021 (the peak of the Bull Market), and openly shorted LUNA before its collapse in 2022 (he made a $10 million bet with Do Kwon). Although he now speaks less frequently on social media compared to the last Bull Market, we can still read through his past tweets. This article has compiled some valuable insights worth saving and rereading.

Before reading the GCR tweets, I summarized and extracted some valuable points from the GCR perspectives worth learning:

• The integer barrier is the Schelling point, which is either a potential support point or a resistance point, especially when there is no valuation reason.

• Low unit deviation can attract retail investors: When you have millions of dogcoins (which are 10,000 times smaller than 1 USD), why would you buy less than a tenth of a bitcorne?

• Do not short low Market Cap projects: if GCR follows this rule, you should do the same.

• The strong always get stronger, and vice versa. Reducing the number of winning combinations and increasing the number of losing combinations is a bad strategy. It is better for you to go against the tide.

• From the SNL and Musk's performance, Shorting every DOGE pump is one of the most successful trades you can take.

• The advantage of GCR has nothing to do with K-line analysis or any complex strategy, it only relies on intuition.

• Compared to the old Token, the new Token has one advantage: full of hope, lacking holders.

• The market's reaction to news provides much more information about market participants' biases (bullish or bearish) and emotions than the veracity of the news itself.

• Don't overthink it, just focus on making money.

• During the altcoin cycle, you should maximize risk at the beginning and gradually reduce it over time, but most people do the opposite.

• Asia/China will drive the next Bull Market.

• BTC and ETH are both at the bottom. GCR turned bullish after the FTX crash.

• Most people with long-term beliefs are better off holding BTC and ETH, rather than trading.

• ETH will reach $10000.

Note: GCR was originally tweeted by @GiganticRebirth account, now using @GCRClassic, and there are also several tweets from the temporary account of GCR "MingXMecca".

Long-term, every time there is panic dumping due to Decentralized Finance vulnerabilities, because the market actually never cares about more than a few hours of time.

The market's reaction to news is very valuable for reference:

When news affects prices, market participants often struggle with whether it is true or false. More often than not, the actual truthfulness of the headline news is not important. The market's reaction to the news, and its reaction over a long period of time, is more meaningful.

**「Reverse Selling News」: **

When 95% of traders expect to 'sell the news' after the news is confirmed, I almost always buy, as I have said in the past, 'Reverse sell the news'. Many people who were forced to leave out of fear of a certain event are forced to rejoin. 'Selling the news' happens in unexpected circumstances.

Do not short low Market Cap projects:

That's why we never, never, Short low Market Cap projects. This is one of the hard rules I teach everyone, especially when sellers are exhausted after four years and supplies are in desperate straits.

Intuition is the greatest advantage:

The best traders will always put intuition first, not apophenia. Don't like this answer? Intuition is not enough to satisfy your curiosity? This is the truth, there is no other truth. I can't teach it to you, but you can find the edge.

Low unit bias effect can attract retail investor:

No matter how many times they see it, people still underestimate the attractiveness of the low unit bias effect on retail investors. This is the most powerful magnet in Cryptocurrency. Why would any sober-minded person buy 100 CONE, while retail investors would own 1,000,000? This is the cheapest Token on Coinbase.

Don't think too much except for making money

DOGE is the easiest coin to trade through the pump driven by catalysts:

Once you completely detach from these short positions, you will find that DOGE is the most easily tradable token. On April 20th, DOGE day, Musk appeared on the comedy show "Saturday Night Live" (SNL), and TSLA accepted DOGE payment. I shorted all the tops, and the enthusiasm for pumping can never meet expectations (a meme Token should not strive for fundamentals), and there may not be a cyclic low point.

Why profit from shorts?

The third most common question I receive is: If you still believe they will continue to decline in the long run, why profit on shorts? If you get a 70-90% drop space when shorting an AltCoin and still hold an extra 10%, please reassess your heuristic. If you're still mimicking my shorts discourse months later, this will happen to you.

shorts can be a type of trade or a type of contrarian investment:

There are two ways to shorts: trading and contrarian investing. If the confidence interval for the 1-year price is > 95% (there is a 95% chance that the price will be lower than the current one year later), it will "invest" and will not follow the short-term Fluctuation. I chose to "invest" in PEOPLE with 0.09 USDT; Squeezing into ATH is possible, but my investment is in a great company.

The Future of Non-fungible Tokens:

Comparing the Market Cap of Non-fungible Token projects with some famous meme Tokens: SHIBA reached a peak Market Cap of 60 billion; no Non-fungible Token has a cap of 1 billion USD (except BAYC). Relative to the rise of Non-fungible Tokens, AltCoin 2.0 seems to be overvalued; I predict that the tokenization of Non-fungible Tokens will erode the volume of AltCoin 2.0.

Hard integer throat is Sherrin point:

As expected, Rebound came out of 10 meme supports, but not entirely internet memes; hard integers are the obvious convergence point of fuzzy valuation of reflexive assets; Respect Xie Lin point.

Zone Rotation and Imitation:

For weeks I've been telling everyone that the biggest threat to any successful project is its own success. Success breeds imitation, and in this profit-driven industry, it will mercilessly shift to the original Derivatives to chase higher returns (from VC to traders to the final retail investor).

Decentralized Finance Summer, Food Farms, Original seigniorage [ESD, DSD], OHM (Olympus DAO), and countless other hot trends are rotating.

Short Elon Musk Stimulates DOGE Pump:

Has there been any trading strategy in the past year that is easier, more accurate (over 100%?), and less complicated than shorting Elon Musk to pump DOGE? A trade that requires less advantage, better predictive ability, and less talent, but always works? SNL, Dog Day, TSLA payments, Super Bowl ads, space missions, and so on.

Do not attempt to catch the bottom:

If I have helped you in the past, please listen to my advice: don't try to catch the bottom. You may incur huge losses, thinking that you can buy at a low price and recover some of the losses. This is almost impossible, and you are very likely to panic dump due to losses, or the currency price may go to zero.

Mastering Airdrop Chart Patterns:

Capturing (the) high volatility on both ends is where you can achieve the best returns, but the market has become increasingly efficient in pricing these events. However, Airdrops still often follow predictable chart patterns that the market has not fully mastered; study everything that has happened in the past 18 years.

Mastering the timing of Airdrop "bottom" is actually a very crucial art form that needs to be learned in this field; I really started studying this issue after UNI. Sometimes on-chain indicators are helpful, but this is in exchange; once the price flattens out and starts consolidating, sellers are usually exhausted.

Devote fully in interpersonal networking:

If you are not good at trading, you can try your best to build a network of contacts. Attend every meeting. Show up at every gathering. In a Bear Market, it is easier for humans to connect. You won't believe how many people I know who have succeeded by knowing the right people.

The famous 'Decentralization Casino' paper:

Just as 'digital gold' became the narrative and use case winner of BTC in the last cycle, the argument of 'Decentralization Casino' is becoming the Consensus of the entire encryption industry (filling the gap left by 'Web3').

For ordinary people, it's too expensive to fly to Macau or Las Vegas. When we have windfall gains and macro risks, Decentralization casinos and/or Decentralization Ponzi Schemes always run the fastest. I have always believed that humanity is desperate, greedy, corrupt, lonely, and trapped in the metaverse.

News Trading:

If you find yourself marginalized, I would suggest you trade the news instead of getting information from others. The competition for news trading is getting fiercer, so you must establish a fast-reacting infrastructure and observe projects that have been delayed for several months.

The most important thing is that if you are trading meme coins, when the market shows that they don't care about the 'news' of memes, you need to quickly cut your losing combination. Any traders who have an intuitive sense of the market can clearly feel this catalytic emotion and should take some profits at the first impulse.

The relative strength of stocks is often a lagging effect:

Traders often contact me asking why Crypto shows relative strength or weakness compared to stocks. I usually tell them to wait before drawing conclusions; most of the time, we are just witnessing a lagging effect.

GCR Short了一些coin：

Shorting SHIB, DOGE, GAL, SAND, MANA, original LUNA, LUNC publicly, and more generally, the Cryptocurrency bubble of the entire 2020-2021 and the macro-asset bubble lasting 10 years in the fourth quarter of 2021.

To be honest, due to some 'future catalysts', Token with Heavy Position of retail investors is often hyped for several months, leading to an explosive buying frenzy as the event approaches. Just when retail investors imagine that MEME will make them millionaires, market makers use the eventual Liquidity chain reaction for distribution.

Betting Unit Bias:

What caused XRP to rise to $3? The most important thing is the low unit deviation. BTC is already $10,000, ETH is $1,000. Retail investors feel that they are late to the game, but can XRP, which is priced at 10 cents, rise to $1? $10? How about $100? There is a lot of speculation that Coinbase will soon go public (which is not true) and betting on unit bias in the next cycle.

What really drives the development of retail investors in the AltCoin cycle? (1) I got into the 'legitimate asset class' (BTC/ETH) too late; (2) other coins seem to be institutional as well (XRP will be used by banks, Garling seems to be certified, ADA was created by the 'co-founder' of ETH, Musk endorses DOGE).

In the middle to late stages of the cycle, they start chasing the more decadent games that don't need so long societal proof (because the pool of retail investors has opened up). These cycles only start after the main assets have pumped for a long time, leading to (1) wealth effect; (2) people feeling they have missed the opportunity and chasing after altcoins.

For most people, it is too early to consider the next "institutional" coin. Doing research in a Bear Market will give you an advantage, but the real time to invest is after a significant pump in the major market. Emotions will also change from Cryptocurrency is an eyewash to "I need to buy the next ETH, ETH is too high".

Advantages of the new coin:

Full of hope; lacking holders; the team is not very rich, lacking motivation to speculate.

China and Asia will drive the next bull market:

I believe that China (and Asia as a whole) will provide the driving force for the next Bull Market, which will take quite some time to digest the Western ridicule of this space. However, the East is rising and eager to showcase itself. You should take a look on WeChat, where many future high-rises will be on Tokens that you are not aware of in your circle.

Strong Always Strong (MingXMecca):

In the narrative cycle, we have a cognitive bias towards buying Tokens that have not yet risen; but in the long run, the strong always get stronger, while the weak often continue to lag behind. Until the dance ends; then the created power quickly collapses.

"Low Float Theory" (MingXMecca):

Think about incentive measures, some projects have huge unpaid floating capital / in the future, hedging can be done. Let the market makers intentionally raise it, so that traders think they should join this 'narrative' - allocation; instead of selling at a price of 0 in a deep bear market later. They have been waiting for the echo of GCR.

Reverse Supercycle (MingXMecca):

Web3 has not seen any real change, people are just talking about their narratives at the top and bottom. I have always told people that the idea that all Tokens will go to zero is just the reverse of Supercycle, "this time it's different". It's always the same game, and people love Tokens.

The best-performing Token has the worst Tokenomics:

Some of the best-performing Tokens have the worst Tokenomics, coming from the most predatory teams. Many teams launched at the peak of the Bear Market have been desperately waiting for more favorable conditions so that they can deploy their tactics and manipulate the market.

Winner takes all, loser gets nothing:

Try to imagine your Ponzi Scheme as a professional boxer instead of a Token; winner takes all, loser gets nothing. People really do cut their winning combinations and increase their losing combinations instead of seeking treatment.

Increase risk at the beginning of the AltCoin cycle:

We observe the general trading principles when MEME coin rises: during the AltCoin cycle, you should increase risk when the trend reverses for the first time, and gradually protect capital over time. People lose money because their approach is exactly the opposite; slow in the early stages, and increasingly greedy over time.

I continue to hold a large position in Spot BTC and ETH because I believe we have bottomed out in November and remain optimistic about the future; aiming to achieve the target of $10,000 ETH by 2030. 90% of holders will be better off. This advice only applies to Degen traders playing with garbage coins.

The best indicator to know how much juice is left in an altcoin season:

Long has been trading in the altcoin season for a long time. One of the best indicators of remaining long juice is how AltCoins react to news, announcements, listings, and fraud. When the altcoin season is about to rug, traders are still going long on the news, but will immediately start dumping.

HODL Spot:

I bought about 16,000-18,000 Tokens in 2022, and I am not very interested in long trades. I plan to sell them to institutions/TradFi funds in the late stage of the next cycle. I have expanded the scale of some reverse investments and selected some narrative/rotation-exhausted selected junk coins.

Research 2019 and 2020:

Don't expect too much. The entire banking system will not collapse overnight, nor will it overnight lead to hyper-bitcoinization and push BTC to rise to $1 million. Don't expect too little either; when we get a correction, it's not CZ designed eyewash for exiting Liquidity, it's going back to zero. Stay balanced. Study 2019 and 2020.

ETH will reach $10,000 one day:

This may be my last tweet about Cryptocurrency. As I often say, if you have long-term faith in BTC and ETH, you just need to hold them without trading, and you will have a good return. They will only continue to print more long money; you are unlikely to catch every local move. ETH will reach $10,000 one day.

Disclaimer: Readers are strictly required to comply with local laws and regulations. The above content does not constitute any investment advice.