Author: Digital Asset Research

Compiled by Peisen, BlockBeats

Editor's note: Digital Asset Research demonstrates the high probability of significant events or news occurring from August 6th to 12th through detailed data on the long aspects such as time range, price range, and time perspective. The article also compares the current market cycle with previous cycles, points out the time rules of market trend changes, and provides ample evidence combined with monthly and weekly chart analysis.

This is something I have been openly discussing for some time, but today I want to reiterate that there is evidence to suggest that there may be significant trends and emotional changes in the BTC and broader Cryptocurrency markets between August 6th and 12th.

Several months ago, I mentioned this time frame in the video outlook, which you can find here.

Today, I will present all the evidence gradually built based on the time range, price range, and time perspective. I think you will see a high probability of significant events or news occurring within this time window.

We will start from the monthly chart and go all the way to the daily chart to demonstrate the convergence of multiple factors that we see.

The monthly chart is the content we focused on following last week, but to further prove that we are in the same cycle, we also included the months of the previous two tops. As you can see, the previous two cycles are almost identical to the current one. The 33 months from the major high and the 20 months from the major low will place us in the time frame from July to September, which is the final low before a significant pump.

Now we know that time is on our side, but many people think this cycle is different because prices quickly reached historic highs. However, let's compare the current cycle to previous ones on a monthly chart.

The evidence is quite shocking. As you can see, except for 2012, the price in the first two cycles pumped just over 200% from the Bear Market low point, exactly at the time we are in now. You can see that this time is no different. In fact, time and price are exactly where they should be, neither overly extended as some commentators have said, nor beyond expectations.

Next, let's look at the weekly chart, there is more long content to discuss. First, we found that there is a major trend change every 30 weeks in this cycle. Interestingly, this 30-week cycle happens to fall between a major low and a major high, occurring at the same time. I will explain the reason in the next few charts, but for now, the next 30-week cycle happens to fall on the week of August 12th. The sum of these three 30-week cycles, counting from the Bear Market low, is exactly 90 weeks.

In addition, zoom in on the weekly chart. I noticed that from the high point in 2017 to the first significant high point in 2021, it took 174 weeks. August 12th will mark 174 weeks from the significant high point in April 2021, undoubtedly an important high point. Therefore, we are approaching the same time period between two important turning points, the high point in 2017 and the high point in April 2021.

Now, based on our evidence, the market is in a different phase, and in my view, the inflection point is more likely to occur in the form of a major low rather than a major high. But as I have always said, we often see a major high and low in this time window during these cycles.

The chart below shows this particular period in each cycle, as well as the situation at this time of year last year. As you can see, there is almost always a sharp pump in August, followed by a rapid decline, which can reach 20-50%. Unlike the other three charts last year, it was only in the second year of the cycle, but it showed the seasonal feature of this type of trend occurring in August.

It also shows that significant highs and lows appeared in the market around the 30-week turning point during this cycle, with a relatively tight time window.

Now let's take a look from a time perspective. Simply put, the time perspective refers to starting from a significant high or low point and calculating 30 calendar days to find trend changes. You just need to start with 30, then add 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, etc., and look for trend changes at these time points. The more concentrated the time points, the higher the importance of that day or week.

As shown in the chart below, all of these time measurements fall within a window of time angle. Within this period, we have several major highs and lows all pointing to the second week of August as a major convergence period.

Finally, from a time range perspective, the market has always followed a 150-day cycle pattern in this cycle: 155 days of pump and 150 days of consolidation. It is worth noting that the balance of market time should not be imbalanced. That is to say, the number of days the market falls should not exceed the number of days of pump. In a Bull Market, the time of market pump is usually longer than the time of decline, as shown in the chart below. If the number of days of market decline exceeds the previous 150 days and a new low point appears, this will not be a good sign.

Finally, taking into account the price range, time range, time perspective, and seasonal factors, we are approaching a mid-August window that could very likely be a trigger point for BTC. If this evidence is not sufficient, please note that the start date of the BTC chart is August 19th. I won't go into too much detail on this issue, but the birth date is significant, and August is typically the month when the major bull market begins.

This is why I am cautious here and waiting for the window to close before taking more aggressive action. Will we see ETH ETF finally start trading, followed by a rapid drop like BTC ETF? Or will we see more long political headlines causing election uncertainty? I'm not entirely sure what it will be, but it's definitely a period worth following and being patient with.

Original|Odaily Star Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser2010)

On July 24th, pump.fun, a Meme coin issuance platform in the Solana ecosystem, has surpassed the milestone of 70 million US dollars in cumulative revenue, becoming a phenomenon in this cycle. The subsequent discussion is about whether pump.fun's impact on the Solana ecosystem is good or bad. Supporters believe that the pump.fun has brought the Meme coin craze to the Solana ecosystem, attracting funds, traffic, and developers to enter; opponents believe that pump.fun brings more Rug eyewash, network congestion, and garbage Meme coin to the Solana ecosystem. Odaily Star Daily will briefly analyze this in this article to provide readers with a more comprehensive perspective on this matter.

pump.fun: a product of the times that creates heroes

At the beginning of May, the new issuance of SPL Tokens in the Solana ecosystem reached a record high, reaching 14648, with the main driving force behind this achievement coming from pump.fun, with the new issuanceToken accounting for over 50%. At that time, pump.fun was seen as a 'one-click coin issuance platform', with relatively few 'gold dog Meme coins', but it has already attracted a lot of market follow. Nanzhi, a senior author of Odaily Star Daily, has also provided a comprehensive introduction to this, see the article "The engine behind the historical high growth of Solana's Token issuance, interpreting the rise engine Pump.fun" for more details.

Looking back at the development history of pump.fun, important Nodes include the following:

• In mid-March, the Meme coin craze led by BOME and SLERF injected new Liquidity and market attention to Solana's ecosystem, and also laid the foundation for the explosive rise of subsequent Meme coin projects.
• In May, pump.fun suffered a Flash Loans attack, with 1.2 million US dollars stolen. It was later found to be done by a former employee (for details, please refer to the article 'How did the former employee steal 1.2 million US dollars and the pump.fun theft event is so long?' by a senior author of Odaily Planet Daily). Despite facing a Crisis of Confidence at one point, the project still managed to overcome this challenge through proper handling. Subsequently, it also launched a live streaming feature and ushered in the 'Meme Coin New Media Era.' Recently, the 'Recommended for You' information flow feature has also been launched on the platform.
• In early July, the number of tokens released on Pump.fun has exceeded 1.17 million, with a cumulative income of over $50 million. On July 1st, it achieved a new achievement of "income of $1.99 million in the past 24 hours", surpassing Block chain networks such as ETH, TRON, Solana, and ranking first in DefiLlama protocol income for a while.

Thanks to the active Meme coin projects on the pump.fun platform, the Solana ecosystem has become the "only ray of light" in the volatile market in recent months -

• On June 24th, according to data from SolanaFloor, the total on-chain DEX volume of Solana exceeded 400 billion US dollars, with a total number of trading users exceeding 20 million, and a Swap volume of approximately 1.59 billion transactions.
• On July 22, DeFiLlama data shows that Solana on-chain DEX has a volume of 145.97 billion US dollars in the past 7 days, ranking first for three consecutive weeks, with a 7-day increase of 9.73%.
• On July 24th, according to Blockworks Research analyst Ryan Connor, Solana has surpassed Ethereum for the first time in the past 30 days in terms of Decentralized Exchange (DEX) volume. By this measure, Solana has become the most commonly used chain.

It can be said that the achievements at the data level cannot fully reflect the value of Liquidity, attention and influence brought to the Solana ecosystem by pump.fun. In a certain sense, pump.fun has become the engine that supports the "ecosystem Bull Market" of Solana.

But behind the prosperity of flowers and the boiling oil, pump.fun has also infiltrated every aspect of the Solana ecosystem like a 'poison'.

pump.fun: The culprit of ecological decay and rapid decline

As the saying goes, 'what makes you successful can also limit you.' The promotion of pump.fun in the Solana ecosystem is obvious, but there are also many negative impacts. Specifically, the main negative impacts include the following points:

Rug scams are rampant, and there are countless eyewashes

According to Dune's statistics, the issuance of the Meme coin project on the pump.fun platform has nearly reached 1.5 million, and in such a large number of projects, there are still many barriers to overcome:

Only when a project reaches a $69,000 Market Cap will the platform add $12,000 Liquidity to Raydium (a leading Solana DEX) and burn LP tokens. After that, reaching a $100,000, $200,000, $500,000, $1 million, or even $10 million Market Cap becomes a milestone for these Meme coin projects. Any slight mistake can result in a total loss. Only a few projects, such as BILLY (internet memes dog), have achieved the milestone of surpassing a $100 million Market Cap. Naturally, the extremely low coin issuance threshold has also given rise to countless Rug eyewash scams.

pump.fun related data

Celebrity Coin Arena, pump.fun is a new platform for harvesting

According to the statistics of encryption KOL Slorg, the market capitalization of 30 famous Meme coins with certain attention on the market has dropped by at least 80% in just a few days to several tens of days. Pump.fun provides the most convenient tool for these celebrity coins, to some extent becoming an accomplice in the "harvesting" of celebrity coins.

Slorg's related statistics on celebrity coin Market Cap

Eye-catching, showing the lower limit, or triggering extreme and negative events

Previously, after pump.fun launched the live broadcast function, it caused a high degree of market follow-up. Earlier, a developer named Mikol launched a Meme coin called TruthOrDare (DARE) on Pump.fun in May, and later accidentally caught fire due to alcohol ignition during a Twitch live broadcast and suffered third-degree burns all over his body, leading to hospitalization; previously, a Meme coin project named 'LIVEWITHMOM' had a live broadcast of a certain minor and 'mother' based on the rise and fall of the coin price and barrage requests, involving some naked body privacy. It must be said that once the Meme coin project goes crazy, it is easy to cause a series of uncontrollable events.

LIVEMOM PROJECT LIVE STREAM

In addition, pump.fun has led to the Solana ecosystem's Meme coin project becoming more and more 'PVP', with a project being able to go straight to zero in just a few minutes, and the presence of MEV extractors and various sniper bots has also left the Solana ecosystem unable to extricate itself from a 'drastic surge to quench thirst', in the long run, the attention of legitimate projects and Liquidity will also increasingly wither away.

Summary: pump.fun will continue to exist in the form of a 'casino', but the platform determines its lifecycle

Overall, pump.fun is more beneficial than harmful to the Solana ecosystem. As mentioned in the previous article 'One-click issuance becomes the 'encryption' of new passwords', one-click issuance platforms have become important tools to facilitate ecosystem development, and many similar projects are striving to establish their own ecological positions on different blockchain networks.

Therefore, as VC coins become less popular and BTC Spot ETF and ETH Spot ETF are listed one after another, pump.fun will continue to exist in the form of an on-chain casino, attracting more and more long-term participants due to its high liquidity and attention.

But if the platform cannot respond to seeking reasonable ways to limit Rug discs, eyewash, and avoid extreme events, it may also encounter "traffic backlash" one day, and be mercilessly abandoned by the ecosystem and the market. This may also be one of the reasons why Solana officials recently promoted functions such as Blinks.

**For now, we can only say that 'Liquidity is the most honest manifestation'.

Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey confirmed yesterday that US Vice President Harris will not speak at the BTC 2024 conference. Despite Harris's absence, this year's BTC conference is not lacking in the presence of American politicians. The conference has invited 10 American political guests including Trump, with 8 being Republicans, only one being a Democrat, and one being an independent (former Democrat).

Of course, it is not surprising. On the one hand, Nashville, where the conference is held, is located in Tennessee, a traditional 'red state' and the stronghold of the Republican Party, both senators from Tennessee will attend. On the other hand, compared to the conservatism of the Democratic Party, the majority of the Republican Party have an optimistic attitude towards Cryptocurrency. A recent survey by Paradigm showed that 28% of Republicans hold or have purchased Cryptocurrency, which exceeds the national average, and 60% of Republicans tend to have clear encryption regulations in Congress. An intuitive comparison is that in May of this year, the Republican Party led and pushed through the FIT21 bill, the following figure intuitively reflects the voting results of the two parties and their attitudes towards the regulation of digital assets. Recently, the Republican National Convention also approved a new policy proposed by Trump for the Republican Party, one of which is to support innovative encryption policies.

The voting situation of the two parties on the FIT21 bill, source: Bitwise

Let's go back and talk about the politicians who participated in the BTC conference and their promotion of encryption.

· Donald Trump: 2024 US presidential election candidate, former 45th President of the United States, Republican. He referred to himself as the 'Crypto President' and has been involved in the encryption field. You can read about his involvement in our previous article, 'Selling Trump: The former president's encryption political and business circle and 'business experience'.'

**· Vivek Ganapathy ** has participated in the Republican nomination campaign for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a Republican who announced accepting BTC as campaign donations during the campaign. He announced his withdrawal from the presidential primary on January 15, 2024.

· Bill Hagerty is a Republican senator from Tennessee who has criticized the Democratic Party for being too centralized and restrictive in their treatment of the encryption industry.

· Marsha Blackburn is a senator from Tennessee, a Republican. She announced during this year's reelection campaign that she would accept Cryptocurrency donations and praised the freedom and privacy of BTC.

· Cynthia Lummis is a senator and former federal congresswoman from Wyoming, a Republican, and a supporter of BTC. She has been pushing for legislation related to BTC and cryptocurrency, stating that BTC and cryptocurrency will become an important part of the future economy. She also plans to announce BTC strategic reserve legislation at the BTC conference.

**· Tim Scott ** is a senator from South Carolina, a Republican, and a member of the US Senate's Financial Innovation Core Group. He has repeatedly called for a balanced approach to digital assets and advocated for the establishment of a Cryptocurrency regulatory framework.

· Bernardo Moreno is a Republican candidate for the United States Senate, a Republican, and a blockchain entrepreneur and Cryptocurrency enthusiast.

· Sam Brown is a Republican Senate candidate, Republican, early adopter of cryptocurrency, who invested in BTC in 2017.

· Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an independent candidate for President of the United States, formerly a Democrat until 2023, and currently affiliated with another independent party. He has purchased 14 BTC and has made multiple statements in support of the Block, BTC, and Cryptocurrency, such as expressing the desire to allocate the entire U.S. budget to the Block on-chain and promising to release the founder of the Silk Road platform if elected president.

**· Ro Khanna ** is the only Democrat at the conference, who has been a member of the U.S. House of Representatives since 2017. This congressman is a progressive Democrat, representing a district in Silicon Valley that is friendly to Cryptocurrency. The highly followed Cryptocurrency policy roundtable this month was hosted by Ro Khanna, who has been in contact with senior executives in the digital asset industry, Democratic lawmakers, and White House officials.

P.S. Despite encryption becoming a battleground for both parties and Favourable Information for the entire industry, in the long run, both parties need to cooperate more in promoting the development and regulatory aspects of the encryption industry, which is healthier for the entire ecosystem.

Original author: VIKTOR

Original translation: Peng SUN, Foresight News

GCR is an anonymous trader who rose to fame during the 2021 Bull Market for seemingly having a great grasp of market trends. As a well-known Short master with massive trading volume, his trading cases are impressive. For example, he openly shorted the top of DOGE in May 2021, shorted SHIB and Metaverse tokens in November 2021 (the peak of the Bull Market), and openly shorted LUNA before its collapse in 2022 (he made a $10 million bet with Do Kwon). Although he now speaks less frequently on social media compared to the last Bull Market, we can still read through his past tweets. This article has compiled some valuable insights worth saving and rereading.

Before reading the GCR tweets, I summarized and extracted some valuable points from the GCR perspectives worth learning:

• The integer barrier is the Schelling point, which is either a potential support point or a resistance point, especially when there is no valuation reason.

• Low unit deviation can attract retail investors: When you have millions of dogcoins (which are 10,000 times smaller than 1 USD), why would you buy less than a tenth of a bitcorne?

• Do not short low Market Cap projects: if GCR follows this rule, you should do the same.

• The strong always get stronger, and vice versa. Reducing the number of winning combinations and increasing the number of losing combinations is a bad strategy. It is better for you to go against the tide.

• From the SNL and Musk's performance, Shorting every DOGE pump is one of the most successful trades you can take.

• The advantage of GCR has nothing to do with K-line analysis or any complex strategy, it only relies on intuition.

• Compared to the old Token, the new Token has one advantage: full of hope, lacking holders.

• The market's reaction to news provides much more information about market participants' biases (bullish or bearish) and emotions than the veracity of the news itself.

• Don't overthink it, just focus on making money.

• During the altcoin cycle, you should maximize risk at the beginning and gradually reduce it over time, but most people do the opposite.

• Asia/China will drive the next Bull Market.

• BTC and ETH are both at the bottom. GCR turned bullish after the FTX crash.

• Most people with long-term beliefs are better off holding BTC and ETH, rather than trading.

• ETH will reach $10000.

Note: GCR was originally tweeted by @GiganticRebirth account, now using @GCRClassic, and there are also several tweets from the temporary account of GCR "MingXMecca".

Long-term, every time there is panic dumping due to Decentralized Finance vulnerabilities, because the market actually never cares about more than a few hours of time.

The market's reaction to news is very valuable for reference:

When news affects prices, market participants often struggle with whether it is true or false. More often than not, the actual truthfulness of the headline news is not important. The market's reaction to the news, and its reaction over a long period of time, is more meaningful.

**「Reverse Selling News」: **

When 95% of traders expect to 'sell the news' after the news is confirmed, I almost always buy, as I have said in the past, 'Reverse sell the news'. Many people who were forced to leave out of fear of a certain event are forced to rejoin. 'Selling the news' happens in unexpected circumstances.

Do not short low Market Cap projects:

That's why we never, never, Short low Market Cap projects. This is one of the hard rules I teach everyone, especially when sellers are exhausted after four years and supplies are in desperate straits.

Intuition is the greatest advantage:

The best traders will always put intuition first, not apophenia. Don't like this answer? Intuition is not enough to satisfy your curiosity? This is the truth, there is no other truth. I can't teach it to you, but you can find the edge.

Low unit bias effect can attract retail investor:

No matter how many times they see it, people still underestimate the attractiveness of the low unit bias effect on retail investors. This is the most powerful magnet in Cryptocurrency. Why would any sober-minded person buy 100 CONE, while retail investors would own 1,000,000? This is the cheapest Token on Coinbase.

Don't think too much except for making money

DOGE is the easiest coin to trade through the pump driven by catalysts:

Once you completely detach from these short positions, you will find that DOGE is the most easily tradable token. On April 20th, DOGE day, Musk appeared on the comedy show "Saturday Night Live" (SNL), and TSLA accepted DOGE payment. I shorted all the tops, and the enthusiasm for pumping can never meet expectations (a meme Token should not strive for fundamentals), and there may not be a cyclic low point.

Why profit from shorts?

The third most common question I receive is: If you still believe they will continue to decline in the long run, why profit on shorts? If you get a 70-90% drop space when shorting an AltCoin and still hold an extra 10%, please reassess your heuristic. If you're still mimicking my shorts discourse months later, this will happen to you.

shorts can be a type of trade or a type of contrarian investment:

There are two ways to shorts: trading and contrarian investing. If the confidence interval for the 1-year price is > 95% (there is a 95% chance that the price will be lower than the current one year later), it will "invest" and will not follow the short-term Fluctuation. I chose to "invest" in PEOPLE with 0.09 USDT; Squeezing into ATH is possible, but my investment is in a great company.

The Future of Non-fungible Tokens:

Comparing the Market Cap of Non-fungible Token projects with some famous meme Tokens: SHIBA reached a peak Market Cap of 60 billion; no Non-fungible Token has a cap of 1 billion USD (except BAYC). Relative to the rise of Non-fungible Tokens, AltCoin 2.0 seems to be overvalued; I predict that the tokenization of Non-fungible Tokens will erode the volume of AltCoin 2.0.

Hard integer throat is Sherrin point:

As expected, Rebound came out of 10 meme supports, but not entirely internet memes; hard integers are the obvious convergence point of fuzzy valuation of reflexive assets; Respect Xie Lin point.

Zone Rotation and Imitation:

For weeks I've been telling everyone that the biggest threat to any successful project is its own success. Success breeds imitation, and in this profit-driven industry, it will mercilessly shift to the original Derivatives to chase higher returns (from VC to traders to the final retail investor).

Decentralized Finance Summer, Food Farms, Original seigniorage [ESD, DSD], OHM (Olympus DAO), and countless other hot trends are rotating.

Short Elon Musk Stimulates DOGE Pump:

Has there been any trading strategy in the past year that is easier, more accurate (over 100%?), and less complicated than shorting Elon Musk to pump DOGE? A trade that requires less advantage, better predictive ability, and less talent, but always works? SNL, Dog Day, TSLA payments, Super Bowl ads, space missions, and so on.

Do not attempt to catch the bottom:

If I have helped you in the past, please listen to my advice: don't try to catch the bottom. You may incur huge losses, thinking that you can buy at a low price and recover some of the losses. This is almost impossible, and you are very likely to panic dump due to losses, or the currency price may go to zero.

Mastering Airdrop Chart Patterns:

Capturing (the) high volatility on both ends is where you can achieve the best returns, but the market has become increasingly efficient in pricing these events. However, Airdrops still often follow predictable chart patterns that the market has not fully mastered; study everything that has happened in the past 18 years.

Mastering the timing of Airdrop "bottom" is actually a very crucial art form that needs to be learned in this field; I really started studying this issue after UNI. Sometimes on-chain indicators are helpful, but this is in exchange; once the price flattens out and starts consolidating, sellers are usually exhausted.

Devote fully in interpersonal networking:

If you are not good at trading, you can try your best to build a network of contacts. Attend every meeting. Show up at every gathering. In a Bear Market, it is easier for humans to connect. You won't believe how many people I know who have succeeded by knowing the right people.

The famous 'Decentralization Casino' paper:

Just as 'digital gold' became the narrative and use case winner of BTC in the last cycle, the argument of 'Decentralization Casino' is becoming the Consensus of the entire encryption industry (filling the gap left by 'Web3').

For ordinary people, it's too expensive to fly to Macau or Las Vegas. When we have windfall gains and macro risks, Decentralization casinos and/or Decentralization Ponzi Schemes always run the fastest. I have always believed that humanity is desperate, greedy, corrupt, lonely, and trapped in the metaverse.

News Trading:

If you find yourself marginalized, I would suggest you trade the news instead of getting information from others. The competition for news trading is getting fiercer, so you must establish a fast-reacting infrastructure and observe projects that have been delayed for several months.

The most important thing is that if you are trading meme coins, when the market shows that they don't care about the 'news' of memes, you need to quickly cut your losing combination. Any traders who have an intuitive sense of the market can clearly feel this catalytic emotion and should take some profits at the first impulse.

The relative strength of stocks is often a lagging effect:

Traders often contact me asking why Crypto shows relative strength or weakness compared to stocks. I usually tell them to wait before drawing conclusions; most of the time, we are just witnessing a lagging effect.

GCR Short了一些coin：

Shorting SHIB, DOGE, GAL, SAND, MANA, original LUNA, LUNC publicly, and more generally, the Cryptocurrency bubble of the entire 2020-2021 and the macro-asset bubble lasting 10 years in the fourth quarter of 2021.

To be honest, due to some 'future catalysts', Token with Heavy Position of retail investors is often hyped for several months, leading to an explosive buying frenzy as the event approaches. Just when retail investors imagine that MEME will make them millionaires, market makers use the eventual Liquidity chain reaction for distribution.

Betting Unit Bias:

What caused XRP to rise to $3? The most important thing is the low unit deviation. BTC is already $10,000, ETH is $1,000. Retail investors feel that they are late to the game, but can XRP, which is priced at 10 cents, rise to $1? $10? How about $100? There is a lot of speculation that Coinbase will soon go public (which is not true) and betting on unit bias in the next cycle.

What really drives the development of retail investors in the AltCoin cycle? (1) I got into the 'legitimate asset class' (BTC/ETH) too late; (2) other coins seem to be institutional as well (XRP will be used by banks, Garling seems to be certified, ADA was created by the 'co-founder' of ETH, Musk endorses DOGE).

In the middle to late stages of the cycle, they start chasing the more decadent games that don't need so long societal proof (because the pool of retail investors has opened up). These cycles only start after the main assets have pumped for a long time, leading to (1) wealth effect; (2) people feeling they have missed the opportunity and chasing after altcoins.

For most people, it is too early to consider the next "institutional" coin. Doing research in a Bear Market will give you an advantage, but the real time to invest is after a significant pump in the major market. Emotions will also change from Cryptocurrency is an eyewash to "I need to buy the next ETH, ETH is too high".

Advantages of the new coin:

Full of hope; lacking holders; the team is not very rich, lacking motivation to speculate.

China and Asia will drive the next bull market:

I believe that China (and Asia as a whole) will provide the driving force for the next Bull Market, which will take quite some time to digest the Western ridicule of this space. However, the East is rising and eager to showcase itself. You should take a look on WeChat, where many future high-rises will be on Tokens that you are not aware of in your circle.

Strong Always Strong (MingXMecca):

In the narrative cycle, we have a cognitive bias towards buying Tokens that have not yet risen; but in the long run, the strong always get stronger, while the weak often continue to lag behind. Until the dance ends; then the created power quickly collapses.

"Low Float Theory" (MingXMecca):

Think about incentive measures, some projects have huge unpaid floating capital / in the future, hedging can be done. Let the market makers intentionally raise it, so that traders think they should join this 'narrative' - allocation; instead of selling at a price of 0 in a deep bear market later. They have been waiting for the echo of GCR.

Reverse Supercycle (MingXMecca):

Web3 has not seen any real change, people are just talking about their narratives at the top and bottom. I have always told people that the idea that all Tokens will go to zero is just the reverse of Supercycle, "this time it's different". It's always the same game, and people love Tokens.

The best-performing Token has the worst Tokenomics:

Some of the best-performing Tokens have the worst Tokenomics, coming from the most predatory teams. Many teams launched at the peak of the Bear Market have been desperately waiting for more favorable conditions so that they can deploy their tactics and manipulate the market.

Winner takes all, loser gets nothing:

Try to imagine your Ponzi Scheme as a professional boxer instead of a Token; winner takes all, loser gets nothing. People really do cut their winning combinations and increase their losing combinations instead of seeking treatment.

Increase risk at the beginning of the AltCoin cycle:

We observe the general trading principles when MEME coin rises: during the AltCoin cycle, you should increase risk when the trend reverses for the first time, and gradually protect capital over time. People lose money because their approach is exactly the opposite; slow in the early stages, and increasingly greedy over time.

I continue to hold a large position in Spot BTC and ETH because I believe we have bottomed out in November and remain optimistic about the future; aiming to achieve the target of $10,000 ETH by 2030. 90% of holders will be better off. This advice only applies to Degen traders playing with garbage coins.

The best indicator to know how much juice is left in an altcoin season:

Long has been trading in the altcoin season for a long time. One of the best indicators of remaining long juice is how AltCoins react to news, announcements, listings, and fraud. When the altcoin season is about to rug, traders are still going long on the news, but will immediately start dumping.

HODL Spot:

I bought about 16,000-18,000 Tokens in 2022, and I am not very interested in long trades. I plan to sell them to institutions/TradFi funds in the late stage of the next cycle. I have expanded the scale of some reverse investments and selected some narrative/rotation-exhausted selected junk coins.

Research 2019 and 2020:

Don't expect too much. The entire banking system will not collapse overnight, nor will it overnight lead to hyper-bitcoinization and push BTC to rise to $1 million. Don't expect too little either; when we get a correction, it's not CZ designed eyewash for exiting Liquidity, it's going back to zero. Stay balanced. Study 2019 and 2020.

ETH will reach $10,000 one day:

This may be my last tweet about Cryptocurrency. As I often say, if you have long-term faith in BTC and ETH, you just need to hold them without trading, and you will have a good return. They will only continue to print more long money; you are unlikely to catch every local move. ETH will reach $10,000 one day.

Disclaimer: Readers are strictly required to comply with local laws and regulations. The above content does not constitute any investment advice.

This is something I have been discussing openly for some time, but today I want to reconfirm that evidence suggests that there may be significant trends and emotional changes in the BTC and broader cryptocurrency market between August 6th and 12th.

A few months ago, I mentioned this time period for the first time in the video outlook, which you can find here.

Today, I will show all the evidence gradually established based on the time range, price range, and time perspective. I think you will see a high probability of significant events or news occurring within this time window.

We will start from the monthly chart and go all the way to the daily chart to show the convergence of multiple factors we see.

The monthly chart is the content we focused on following last week, but to further prove that we are in the same cycle, we have also included the months of the previous two tops. As you can see, the previous two cycles are almost identical to the current cycle. The 33 months from the major high point and the 20 months from the major low point both place us in the timeframe from July to September, which is the last low point before a significant pump.

Now we know that time is on our side, but many people believe that this cycle is different because prices have quickly reached new all-time highs. However, let's compare the current cycle with previous cycles on the monthly chart.

The evidence is quite shocking. As you can see, except for 2012, in the first two cycles, the price pumped just over 200% from the Bear Market low, which is exactly where we are now. As you can see, this time is no different. In fact, time and price are where they should be, neither overextended as some commentators have said, nor exceeding expectations.

Next, let's look at the weekly chart, and there is more long content to discuss. First of all, we found that there will be a major trend change every 30 weeks in this cycle. Interestingly, this 30-week cycle falls exactly between a major low and a major high, and they occur simultaneously. I will explain the reason in the next few charts, but for now, the next 30-week cycle falls exactly on the week of August 12th. These three 30-week cycles add up to a total of 90 weeks from the Bear Market low point.

Now, based on our evidence, this market is in a different stage, in my opinion, inflection point is more likely to occur in the form of a major low rather than a major high. But as I have always said, in these cycles, we often see a major high and low in this time window at the same time.

The chart below shows this particular period in each cycle and the situation at the same time last year in this cycle. As you can see, there is almost always a sharp pump in August, followed by a rapid decline, with a drop of up to 20-50%. Last year, it was different from the other three charts as it was only in the second year of the cycle, but it showed the seasonal characteristic of this type of trend occurring in August.

It also demonstrates that significant highs and lows occurred near the turning point of the market in a 30-week cycle, with a relatively tight time window.

Now let's take a look from a time perspective. Simply put, the time perspective refers to starting from a significant high or low point and calculating 30 calendar days, and looking for trend changes. You just need to start with 30, and then add 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, and so on, and look for trend changes at these time points. The more concentrated the time points, the higher the importance of that day or week.

As shown in the chart below, all these time measurements fall within a time angle window. In this cycle, we have several major highs and lows that point to the second week of August as a major convergence period.

Finally, from the perspective of the time range, the market has always followed a cycle of 150 days in this cycle: 155 days of pump and 150 days of consolidation. It is worth noting that the balance of market time should not be imbalanced. That is to say, the number of days the market falls should not exceed the number of days of pump. In a Bull Market, the time of market pump is usually longer than the time of decline, as shown in the chart below. If the number of days the market falls exceeds the previous 150 days and new lows appear, this will not be a good sign.

Finally, taking into account the price range, time frame, timing, and seasonal factors, we are approaching a mid-August window that is very likely to become a trigger point for BTC. If this evidence is not sufficient, please note that the start date of the BTC chart is August 19th. I won't dwell too much on this issue, but the birth date is important, and August is typically the start of a major bull market.

This is why I remain cautious here and wait for the end of this window before taking more aggressive action. Will we see ETH ETF finally begin trading, followed by a rapid decline like BTC ETF? Or will we see more uncertainty caused by long political headlines leading up to the election? I'm not entirely sure what it will be, but it's definitely a period worth following and being patient with.

Original Title: "DeSec? Where Crypto Meets Security, Surveillance, and Defense"

Written by: Luffistotle, Zee Prime Capital

Compiled by Tia, Techub News

Lately, security order issues in the West have begun to emerge. Typically, we measure the quality of order by taking walks in cities and parks during the day and at night (to see if it is safe). But now this measurement is becoming increasingly unreliable. Social order is built and maintained through three components:

1. Laws and Social Norms
2. Law enforcement (police, surveillance, etc.)
3. Judiciary (Application of Law)

The interaction among these three is complex and integrated with Depth. When people start to avoid walking in the park, or stores begin to move away from the original city for business (usually a very clear sign), it indicates that governance has problems. In fact, some current policies do have some problems. In fact, we can try to understand the possibility of crypto improving law enforcement, which will help improve social structure. Below we will discuss this, focusing on the application of crypto in monitoring tools.

Looking at the long river of history, during the period of declining trust in public institutions and protocol (law), society often resorts to vigilante justice to solve their problems. This power was originally meant to address real community issues, but it eventually turned corrupt and evolved into extortion.

Perhaps there are more modern solutions now, such as cheaper monitoring technology, which may provide 'leverage' for law enforcement agencies to solve problems in a scalable way to ensure the community's goals and desires are achieved. Technology can enable the same number of people to do longer tasks. And protocols of decentralization can help ensure that this new power is not used for other purposes.

The idea of ​​strengthening law enforcement through surveillance is actually terrifying, because there is a threat of abuse of power.

"Absolute power corrupts absolutely."

Cryptocurrency brings the possibility of financial freedom—it eliminates the monopoly of the state on currency and balances the financial behavior of the state. Similarly, it can also balance new surveillance tools. By combining ubiquitous, inexpensive robots, cameras, and sensors with a reliable and neutral collaborative network, it can balance the state's surveillance monopoly.

In our category of projects called DeSec, we explore Depth through interesting conversations with experts. The security field is another opportunity for crypto because it is one of the few areas where clients (government, community) are willing to pay for insurance (defense is willing to pay for redundancy). Redundancy is an inherent feature of crypto. This feature is also why many encryption products usually cannot compete with other solutions, as crypto requires constant payment for higher levels of security/redundancy/verification.

That being said, redundancy is not necessarily a bad thing. It is a trade-off between deterministic fixed costs and variable future costs. In the case of BTC, its value and success are derived from the cost paid for achieving trustless validation (breaking Consensus requires a high cost, hence its security is high). In the defense manufacturing industry, the tolerance for security or failure rates is also extremely low, even if it requires a high cost to achieve.

DePIN meets DeSec: NeighborhoodWatchDAO

The majority of the value of DEP comes from shifting the burden of capital expenditure from companies/protocols to Node operators in exchange for a certain proportion of income. This provides the potential for expansion that many types of networks cannot achieve in other ways.

With these features, some instant applications can be introduced to the market. For example, Dempsey is a DePIN-style SoundThinking (formerly known as ShotSpotter) Node network, which can be sold to ShotSpotter itself or have its own protocol. For those unfamiliar, ShotSpotter is a microphone network installed on buildings that can triangulate the location of gunfire and alert law enforcement or emergency personnel for faster/immediate resource deployment.

As Node operators deploy to their respective cities, such protocol can be extended globally, with a speed faster than the internal reinvestment cycle of companies like SoundThinking.

Similarly, the risk of small drones invading potentially important airspace is increasing. Just as the recent invasion incident at Langley bearish traders Base has shown us. While the US military may have classified solutions for such attacks, a different solution may be needed for other less secure airspace. Incentives can be provided for small radars or visual observation networks in relevant airspace to help law enforcement understand the situation at the launch point.

Similar models can also be used to observe signal strength. (Although this is usually provided by wireless providers to ensure network quality, wireless providers also have disadvantages, and their signals are usually transient.) DePIN can provide continuous signal quality monitoring for these networks (as some projects like ROAM have already planned to do). This is a simpler implementation solution.

In recent years, the number of cheap mobile signal jamming devices in the hands of thieves has increased dramatically. These devices are very frightening because you may find that when someone breaks into your house, your mobile phone, wifi, or radio cannot contact the police.

Criminals can place it in their waistbands and then rob your house or steal your car. Signal monitoring in cities and other areas can easily detect such interference events. Similar to ShotSpotter, it can also alert authorities.

We can also create similar protocols to incentivize regular patrols of small drones (Patrol2earn) in problematic areas, or we can leverage existing projects like DEPINS to support surveillance agencies. Projects like Frodobots or DIMO will use cameras to capture critical events.

Communication

Similar to the monitoring department, DePIN network can also be used to enhance the robustness of network transmission (whether it is an electrical network or a digital network). The advantage is that even in the event of a disaster, such networks can still remain stable.

The mesh edge network can resist today's highly centralized CDN-centric Internet traffic, while the Decentralization power plants can coordinate small-scale energy production, allowing these energy devices to provide backup power when the main production center becomes a target of attack.

This logic also applies to modern warfare. In fact, modern frontline forces need Decentralization more. As we have seen in Ukraine, the use of FPV drones is a significant development in the field of warfare. Small, low-cost (even cardboard drones) and fast precision strikes are now achievable. Any key facilities on the battlefield (i.e. logistics hubs, transmission/command shelters, etc.) will become targets for attack. This will result in these small facilities being called failure points, and the best way to deal with them is to use distributed communication.

In this economic situation, do you still want to use missiles?

Verification

Longer verification can be applied to robot manufacturing. Entering malicious instructions into manufacturing robots may pose serious risks to the entire manufacturing chain. One way to address this type of issue may be to perform Consensus-based verification of the code at runtime. This can help capture malicious alterations to the manufacturing process by reaching Consensus on the code to be executed.

Similar to validation, STAEX provides a public network to facilitate trustless communication between internet of things devices. This offers a novel way of communication for these devices and reduces the risk of interference through traditional channels. Given the increasing risk of illegal activities, this is an important technology that can build a strong network to enable these devices to transmit valuable data.

Other uses of verification include Palmer Luckey's citizen submission of evidence (snitch2earn) as mentioned above. Within the current legal framework, highly complex operations such as concealed identities and bait cars may be difficult to enforce, but nevertheless, in today's world, there are still plenty of ways to record criminal activities. A simple location can be set up to deploy data, and even contextually verify location/time through encryption (ZK!!!).

DeSci

DeSci is another way of integrating encryption technology with the defense/intelligence industry. For example, DeSci DAO funds research in previously overlooked fields such as materials science, bio-manufacturing (such as valleyDAO), cryogenics (CryoDAO), longevity (Vita), and human performance enhancement (does anyone want to join me in making a peptide DAO?). These DAOs can actually have a meaningful impact on these research areas. For example, HairDAO is now one of the largest non-balding research funders in the world.

I believe that as more and more long scientists are abandoning traditional research approaches, innovation in more long cutting-edge research will come from this type of DAO.

Why is protocol important

Why do we need protocols? Many of the ideas mentioned above are clearly aimed at enhancing the surveillance of national governance. However, assuming that these surveillance tools are brought to the market and managed by protocols. In this case, decentralized governance can check whether the authorities using them are enforcing the law properly, and whether the values of those monopolistic governors are consistent with the people they govern? If not, protocols can vote to decide not to provide value-added information to law enforcement agencies anymore (perhaps they will choose to support private police forces or private intelligence agencies).

Comments from skeptics

Increasing surveillance capabilities, regardless of who controls it, may have negative impacts on society. Do not overly question the practical possibility of Decentralization governance, because, similar to BTC, this protocol must rely on the principle of absolute non-permission, that is, minimal governance. That is, maximize the trustless nature.

Society is constantly evolving, and the ability to implement absolute rule of law may weaken our adaptability. Disobedience can promote progress, although it is a very specific form of disobedience (rather than street crime). How can we eliminate specific types of crime? If we make maximum use of monitoring technology, this may become a slippery slope.

Therefore, when implementing technology that helps maintain established order, we must be careful to protect privacy. We humans must have the ability to express outrageous ideas and resist tyranny. If the imbalance between law enforcement and resistance becomes too great, we are just promoting a minority-report style of tyranny.

If we delve deeper into this asymmetry, we can find that the right to bear arms in the United States has become meaningless. The goal of establishing the right to bear arms is to ensure the possibility of potential resistance, but once we invent missiles (not to mention nuclear weapons), this possibility no longer exists. Of course, the right of individuals to defend their property still exists, but it is ineffective in resisting the government.

Encryption technology has unique capabilities that can take the market to a new level. Will the future be MerceneryDAO, defense technology funded by encryption, community-owned drones, or liberal and pacifist? No one knows. Perhaps the answer lies in smaller parts, such as micro nuclear power plant monitors and drone protection networks of Decentralization, or perhaps in some places we haven't even considered.

zkLink's Mainnet 1.0 version will be launched within a month, and users will be able to trade Spot assets; in the next two to three months, users will also be able to trade Perpetual Futures using different on-chain funds; in the second half of Q4 or Q1 next year, there are plans to launch Non-fungible Token trading products.

Host: Frank, Foresight News Researcher

Keynote Speaker: Vince Yang, Co-founder of zkLink

"Founder's Dialogue" is a series of Foresight Talking AMAs launched by ForesightNews. The founders of various projects will share their entrepreneurial experiences, development experiences, industry knowledge reserves, financing processes, and future product market plans in the live channel. If you are interested in a project/founder, you can leave a message on our official Twitter (@Foresight_News) and @ the project's founder. We will select the most popular founders and invite them to our Twitter Space for intimate interaction with everyone.

In this issue, we invited Vince Yang, co-founder of zkLink, a multi-chain trading infrastructure. Not long ago, zkLink completed a $10 million financing. This time, we exchanged ideas with Vince Yang on how to use ZK technology to achieve a new solution to improve asset security.

**Frank: First, please let Vince introduce zkLink to everyone. When was it established, what is it currently working on, and what products have been launched?

Vince Yang: The product we are building is the first long-chain ZK Rollup protocol in the market, mainly using ZK technology to establish a unified trading infrastructure for the long-chain, aiming to improve various pain points of existing Decentralized trading products and build and support the next generation of Decentralized exchanges, including order book exchanges, Fungible Tokens and Non-fungible Tokens (NFTs), NFT trading markets, and more.

Frank: What role does Zero-Knowledge Proof technology play in zkLink's positioning as a "multi-chain transaction infrastructure based on Zero-Knowledge Proof"?

Vince Yang: The entire zkLink protocol adopts a classic ZK Rollup architecture, and we have made some innovations on top of the classic ZK Rollup architecture, with two aspects being the most important.

The first aspect is that we are not only connected to the Ethereum network, but also connected to long layer 1 blockchains and layer 2 networks, including Ethereum's Sidechains, such as the well-known BNB Chain, Avalanche, Polygon, etc., as well as the popular Ethereum scalability solution - ZK Rollup, a universal scalability network, including well-known zkSync, Starknet, Scroll, Linea, etc., as well as Polygon's ZK scalability solution, Polygon zkEVM.

At the same time, we are also integrating some non-EVM public chains, like Solana, in fact, we have completed more than 95% of the development work and Open Sourced the first ZK verification contract on Solana, but this verification contract has not yet been connected to our Testnet because it only supports a relatively simple Algorithm called Groth16, which is a relatively lightweight ZK verification Algorithm, and currently, Solana's mainnet Block chain does not support more complex ZK verification Algorithms.

The Algorithm we currently use is called the PlonK Algorithm, which belongs to the zk-SNARK category. In other words, the entire zkLink network and protocol are similar to the well-known ZK general scaling network on the market, but there are significant differences in architecture. This is because we connect a large number of layer one and layer two networks with many funding entry points, and send the state of the unified state machine to these different on-chain Blocks for synchronization and verification.

So we have longer funding access than other general scaling networks, and can directly interact with assets and liquidity in different Blockchains on-chain, different from other ecology. Users will find that on the protocol layer, they can directly trade assets from different ecology and use a Wallet to manage assets from different Blockchains. This is very different from the current decentralized trading experience, because most DEXs actually only have liquidity pools on one on-chain, even though DEXs like Uniswap and SushiSwap are deployed on many on-chains, they are not interconnected but independent on networks such as Ethereum and BNB Chain.

For example, even if they both have USDT, these two USDTs are actually different and cannot be combined when trading in different networks. At the same time, you need to use different Wallets to operate different networks, especially networks like EVN and non-EVM. For Solana, you must first download their own Wallet. In the future, the MOVE ecosystem may thrive and have its own trapAddress system and specific Wallet. For users, the more long blockchain they encounter, the more Wallets they need to download and manage, which is a pain point for user experience. But we want to improve this problem and allow users to trade and manage long-chain assets with one click, which will be a major improvement in user experience.

The first aspect is that zkLink will integrate a Smart Contract Wallet that supports user social account login, namely Account Abstraction (AA). This will provide users with a seamless trading experience, similar to the experience of using mobile numbers, emails, or social account logins for transactions on centralized platforms.

At the protocol layer, users can manage long different assets on various blockchains with a single account and Address, without managing the Private Key. This is because the underlying solutions for different Smart Contract wallets vary. If MPC technology is used, the user's Private Key can be managed through Sharding and social recovery rules can be set. In this case, the migration cost and learning cost for users are greatly reduced, and the entry barrier is also lowered.

Due to the adoption of ZK technology, the security of this product is completely consistent with on-chain products like Uniswap. Although ZK protocol creates an off-chain transaction execution environment, the shared security is still based on on-chain security. The validity of fund changes and transaction execution is ensured through Zero-Knowledge Proof, which means that all fund changes and transaction executions achieve finality on-chain and share the Consensus security of the mainchain.

If you are currently only connected to the ETH chain, it is as secure as the ETH chain itself. If you connect to a sidechain of the ETH chain, such as the BNB Chain, then it will be as secure as the BNB Chain.

The security of the long chain is somewhat different here, but to ensure security, we adopt a trustless design. In the off-chain transaction execution environment, there are roles such as Sequencer and Prover, which are similar to other scaling solutions. However, there is also a third-party network called a Witness outside the chain, such as market makers or Large Investors. They can read off-chain data from different block explorers and compare the Zero-Knowledge Proof and this state transmitted to the on-chain to see if they are consistent.

If consistent, it can ensure that long on-chain states are completely identical, and the information they receive is also the same, which completely eliminates the risk of collusion between off-chain actors, Sequencers, and the transmission of false information on-chain. Because on the ETH chain, you cannot directly read the deposit information on the BNB Chain, but in this way, you can ensure that the state root in the network is consistent with the unified state, ensuring that the risk of collusion is almost 0.

**Frank: Compared to other Decentralization trading protocols, how does zkLink achieve multi-chain trading of encryption assets, and how does the multi-chain architecture ensure security?

**Vince Yang：**We can achieve this, primarily because we use Zero-Knowledge Proof technology, this encryption cryptography can ensure security, and in the industry, Zero-Knowledge Proof technology is generally considered to be an irreversible proof technology that cannot be cracked by attackers.

Even the operator itself, such as the off-chain Sequencer, cannot deceive the on-chain verification contract. When uploading information from off-chain to on-chain, I need to generate a proof, which contains a prove key. These two keys are in one-to-one correspondence. If you successfully match them, then the information you declare is true, and the state transition, including changes in your funds, is also true.

Based on this premise, we introduce the long-chain architecture, such as deploying the Rollup verification contract on both the first-layer blockchain and the second-layer network of long, where it will simultaneously receive unified off-chain state tree and transaction information on these networks, including a verification of Zero-Knowledge Proof.

If all these contracts can complete this proof and pass the multi-chain consistency check, the entire verification process can be completed. As long as the results of off-chain execution and generation are returned to on-chain, the results are completely correct. This process ensures security, including the role of submitting off-chain data, which cannot submit false data or forge proof to deceive the on-chain verification contract and attack the contract.

In other words, as long as the verification is passed and the specifications are met, the submitted information is considered to be correct, ensuring the security of the verification process mathematically.

Frank: We all know that zkLink has just completed a $10 million financing round with investors such as Coinbase Ventures. So, where will zkLink allocate the funds? Besides financial support, what other assistance can these investment institutions provide to zkLink?

Vince Yang: Our main round of investment is mainly led by US funds, including one of the largest shareholders of ByteDance, SIG, which has invested in many Web2 projects. However, they have been involved in the Web3 field as early as a few years ago and have invested in many infrastructure and trading-related projects. In addition, there is a top trading team from Israel, 'Efficient Frontier,' and some small trading teams from the United States.

The funds raised in this round will mainly be used to support the rapid launch of the Mainnet, and to advance the development and launch of more long products, so that more long teams can adopt the protocol. At the same time, we are also considering launching incentive measures for the Mainnet at the appropriate time, which may include TGE, but there is currently no definite plan.

The biggest expense should be in the development itself, and possibly supporting some early adopters, especially in the early stages of development, the consumption of software and hardware is very large, requiring the use of cloud resources. The recent 'Dunkirk' test we are conducting is actually a very expensive test because we need to consume a large amount of cloud computing resources every day to generate products to help users recover funds.

Now because of the long number of people participating in this event, it is estimated that there are already 60,000 to 70,000 people participating in this event. Because zkLink has been integrated with 7 chains, each on-chain has dozens of different assets, and generating a Zero-Knowledge Proof is quite resource-intensive for each asset recovery.

To help all users recover all funds, a large amount of computing power is required. This test requires us to increase a lot of Computing Power, and also requires the purchase of a large amount of hardware, including GPUs, which are quite expensive. In the future, we may adopt some new hardware acceleration solutions, such as FPGA or AGIC chip-based acceleration solutions. We will follow the pace of market development and purchase these hardware acceleration solutions at the appropriate time to ensure that the Computing Power of our network is strong enough to support high-performance transactions.

As for the help our investors will bring us, it is obvious because our main investors are from North America, including Ascensive Assets, a fund from Europe, which is one of the largest Cryptocurrency funds in Europe.

Investors from different regions will help us establish a partnership network in the local area, introduce our products, protocol, and technical solutions to people around them; Secondly, they will also help local users to understand our protocol and the advantages of our products earlier; In addition, investors will also help us introduce upstream and downstream partners, such as Smart Contract Wallet, and some specific products built on our protocol, such as the Non-fungible Token trading market and DEX.

Although we know that the encryption community is globalized, there are still obvious regional characteristics in the entire development process. Therefore, projects from the Asia-Pacific region are more likely to quickly expand in the local relationship network. If we have local partners in different markets such as North America, Europe, the Middle East, and India, it will help us reach local communities and users earlier, allowing them to understand our products earlier. In addition, investors may also help us with user education, contact local media partners and exchange partners, etc.

**Frank: In the previous Twitter Space, we discussed zkLink's first user fund disaster escape test 'Dunkirk'. Vince, can you introduce 'Dunkirk' to everyone again? Who is it targeted at, what is its practical significance for the encryption industry, and what is the ultimate vision?

Vince Yang: "Dunkirk" is a very interesting test. It is the first project party in this industry to proactively exit and allow users to withdraw all funds stored in the protocol. Secondly, this is an interactive and interesting test. We originally planned to close the testnet on May 11th. From that time, users will be unable to use the applications on zkLink, and the team will remain silent.

Even under extreme conditions, such as the disappearance of the team or the closure of the protocol, funds previously stored in the contract can still be withdrawn. Through this test, we hope to let users personally experience that when their funds are stored in a protocol, they can still retrieve the funds even if the team disappears and the protocol is closed.

Recently, there have been some security incidents in the zkSync ecosystem, which may involve low-level code mistakes and malicious behavior. If a project has passed this test before going live, as long as it does not change the code, users do not need to worry about such situations. In addition, this 'Dunkirk' drill is based on the ZK technology features, which can also be done by other ZK project parties. By completing this test, they can ensure that the security of the protocol is one hundred percent ready, even if the network crashes or other events occur, users' funds can be fully recovered.

For users, we hope to let them know through this test that even in any emergency, users cannot predict when a catastrophic security event will occur, so when choosing projects and products, users should consciously look for those that can be 100% custodied and 100% fund-retrievable. Even those projects that seem very advanced and secure may not have been fully prepared in terms of engineering and practice. Only through inspection can they truly be considered 100% prepared.

Therefore, we hope that more long projects can be incorporated into the "Dunkirk" testing standard, even though there may be some minor differences in practical operation, the concept of "Dunkirk" should be understood and understood by more long people. As long as the entire industry works together to promote security testing and drills similar to "Dunkirk," the level of Decentralization of encryption products, especially transactional products, will increase, and these products related to user funds will become more secure. This will be a higher level of self-discipline and requirement. If everyone can adopt this standard together, the number of attack incidents will decrease, and it will be difficult to see very long bridges and Rug Pull projects, because they cannot pass this test.

**Frank: We also saw that zkLink opened the 'Dunkirk' test 24 hours ahead of the original plan. What was the consideration behind this?

Vince Yang: This is an interesting topic. Originally, we planned to shut down the network at noon today, but suddenly came up with the FTX event during the brainstorming.

When the FTX incident happened, they didn't notify anyone. The whole process developed very quickly, with no advance notice. Even at the last moment, many people believed they wouldn't go bankrupt. In the world of encryption, there are many surprises, and users cannot predict which platform will have problems in the future. Therefore, we hope to simulate accidents and disasters in real situations through this unexpected shutdown. We hope that this test will leave a deep impression on users and let everyone truly experience that in the world of encryption, no one will notify you in advance of what will happen. If something bad happens, it will definitely happen suddenly.

Therefore, we need to be prepared at all times, always follow Risk Management and fund security, and put them in a very high position. We conducted the 'Dunkirk' test 24 hours in advance, considering these factors.

Frank: Are there any other encryption projects willing to join the 'Dunkirk' plan? How will zkLink promote the communityization of 'Dunkirk' in the encryption industry?

Vince Yang: We do plan to turn the 'Dunkirk' test into a series, and we have received positive responses from some projects. Some Wallet projects are currently being planned and tested, and they are very supportive and enthusiastic about this idea and concept.

At the same time, we will also conduct longer 'Dunkirk' tests in the future, including major upgrades and the addition of important content. If I have major updates, such as adding other blockchains to the network, I may consider conducting new 'Dunkirk' tests again, so that everyone can feel safe even if some code has been changed, new features, assets, and products have been added.

We now have Spot trading, and in the future, there will be derivatives trading, especially for derivatives, as they themselves have many complex business logics, such as Close Position, close all positions, and liquidation operations. Therefore, in the event of a disaster, what are the rules for fund withdrawal calculation, and all of these need to be tested and verified, especially when it comes to complex financial logic, fund handling will become even more complicated. Therefore, we may introduce new tests and use them in other project communities.

Now, especially in those projects that are 100% self-hosted and 100% secure, there should be enough motivation to adopt the 'Dunkirk' test standards. Of course, these projects may need some technical adjustments because their product characteristics may be different, but what 'Dunkirk' emphasizes is a disastrous retreat, that is, whenever any event occurs, your funds are 100% safe and recoverable. I believe that in the near future, everyone can also expect to see the second 'Dunkirk' test.

**Frank: What are the follow-up plans and roadmaps for zkLink? What are the key directions that are currently being focused on, and is there anything that can be revealed about the next stage of development plans?

Vince Yang: Let me introduce our current situation. We have been running on the testnet for over 12 months. Our earliest product was a Curve on the long chain, for example, you can use USDT on the BNB Chain to purchase USDC on the ETH network. Currently, this product is still in the testing phase. The product we are launching is an exchange with order book functionality. It has been integrated with 7 chains, and spot trading has been tested for over 10 months, which is very stable and smooth.

In the next quarter, we will launch the Derivatives exchange feature, where users can use assets from 7 different chains as Margin to trade Open Positions under a unified account. For example, users can deposit assets such as ETH and UNI from the Ethereum network, or BNB and CAKE from the BNB Chain, into the zkLink protocol, and use assets from multiple chains as Margin for Derivatives trading. This feature is very friendly to traders and can greatly improve the efficiency of fund utilization.

At the same time, within the next 1-2 months, we will complete the integration of all ZK universal layer 2 network ecosystems. Currently, zkSync, Scroll, and Linea have been integrated, and we are developing and integrating Starknet, Polygon zkEVM. Each of these ecosystems has hundreds or more long-term projects with their own local assets. We hope to aggregate all assets in these ecosystems, so that they can be connected to the zkLink network. Each ecosystem will have a large amount of funds settling, and aggregating them into one place will make it the best trading platform for Liquidity on the entire network, because the most important thing for trading infrastructure is to provide high-performance trading and the best Liquidity.

When all major ecosystems are connected, users will be very willing to use the products here, because they can buy all the assets they want to buy in one place. We believe that for a considerable period of time, cross-chain bridges will still be a very complex, difficult to use, and not secure enough product.

Of course, the development of Cross-Chain Interaction technology is very rapid, and many new types of Cross-Chain Interaction technology have emerged, such as those based on ZK and LayerZero technologies. However, even if the Cross-Chain Interaction transaction itself is secure, the user experience is still not very friendly. This is because Cross-Chain Interaction transactions require having Gas Tokens on two different on-chain platforms, using different Wallets, and also require paying relatively high Cross-Chain Interaction Money Laundering fees. The entire process may also consume a lot of time, especially for active on-chain users. Managing multiple Wallets can be cumbersome, and if users need to frequently move funds between multiple chains, the cost will be very high.

Therefore, we hope to create a unified trading layer that aggregates assets from various ecosystems in one place, providing sufficient Liquidity, so that users can place a large amount of funds in this layer and buy and sell the assets they want in the DEX.

For users, they prefer to use a Wallet and store their funds in one place. We can also support users in gaining some profits, so that their idle funds can be utilized. In addition, for users who use high or heavy contracts, their multi-chain combined assets can be used as Margin to improve the efficiency of fund utilization.

Currently, we are actively following all of these major Layer 2 ecosystems, including the possibility of expanding to OP (Optimism and Arbitrum) and even MOVE ecosystems in the future, as long as these ecosystems are safe and thriving. At the same time of integration, we will also expand the applications that the trading layer can support, such as order book, Non-fungible Token exchange, complex structured financial products (Options), LaunchPad, Wallet, etc.

We expect that in about a month, the Mainnet 1.0 version of zkLink will be launched, allowing users to trade Spot assets on it; within two to three months, users will also be able to use derivatives to trade Perptual Futures with different on-chain funds; In the second half of Q4 or Q1 next year, we plan to launch NFT trading products, which is our rough plan.

The globally distributed green energy network requires trusted accounting records of the production and usage data, followed by effective and real-time benefit distribution, efficiently incentivizing global participants to collaborate, utilize, and share.

Author: KK, Founder of Hash Global

Since the entry into force of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on March 21, 1994, governments, numerous non-governmental organizations, businesses, and individuals around the world have been making continuous efforts to achieve global carbon neutrality. We already have the production equipment and technology for green energy, and the usage scenarios for green energy have also been greatly expanded. However, a globally effective ecological network for green energy has not been effectively established, and I believe the core reason is the lack of globally credible data. The energy network also needs to be globalized and digitized.

A globally distributed green energy network requires a trustworthy accounting ledger to record the production and usage data, and then to effectively and in real-time allocate benefits based on this, thus efficiently incentivizing participants from around the world to co-build, co-use, and share the network. We need to record data in three aspects:

1. Power generation and energy storage. When green energy is generated and supplied, data can be accurately and credibly recorded, with tampering or falsification costs exceeding economic feasibility, and can be transparent and traceable globally without permission.
2. Trading. The transfer and trading of green energy;
3. Consumption. Refers to the use of green energy;

To solve these data problems, we need:

1. The physical layer's internet of things terminal achieves real-time data collection;
2. The Network Layer can support secure and trusted data transmission and storage;
3. Block chain is used as the Settlement layer. Data needs to be able to be trusted, verifiable, visible to the whole network, and support real-time Settlement;

We are excited to see that Arkreen is exactly such a global distributed renewable energy data network that integrates various technologies. Arkreen aims to connect global renewable energy devices (such as photovoltaic inverters, energy storage batteries, electric vehicle charging piles, etc.), ensuring the trustworthy transmission of physical world data to the digital world, realizing the value of trustworthy data by aggregating their connections; and further promoting the deployment and maximal utilization of more distributed renewable energy devices in a Decentralization Web3 manner, ultimately achieving the global zero-carbon goal.

Based on trusted data, Arkreen truly builds a data infrastructure for an energy network. Those who contribute to the energy network can receive fair distribution and incentives. Global contributors to the network can connect their photovoltaic power generation equipment or energy storage batteries to the Arkreen network, and Arkreen will provide network incentives based on the data from these green energy devices. The green energy data on the network can lead to the development of applications such as green power certificates and virtual power plants. The authenticity of the data, or a trustworthy ledger, is the core of the entire network!

In the past, due to the highly fragmented and long-tail nature of the green energy market, the traditional top-down internet of things platform construction model could not connect a sufficient number of green energy devices within a foreseeable time frame. Without a sufficient number of device connections, it is impossible to support the commercial operation of mature energy network applications, thus falling into a 'chicken-and-egg dilemma'.

We believe that the Arkreen team can effectively break the deadlock and achieve the network's cold start and ecological flywheel effect in a short period of time using the incentive model of Web3. We will see the power of a permissionless network in incentivizing long-tail participants. The combination of the internet of things and blockchain technology gives us the opportunity to use the power of the community to build an energy data infrastructure network from the bottom up. We believe that Arkreen has the opportunity to become a model project in the direction of Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) in the field of Decentralization energy.

Imagine a scenario where John, who lives in Silicon Valley, California, installs rooftop solar panels, energy storage batteries, charging stations, and smart thermostats at home. These devices are connected to the Arkreen network through digital technology, and the data from the energy devices is collected and stored on the on-chain Block. One day, the California government calls on residents to reduce electricity usage for the next two days to relieve the power grid's voltage pressure, and the power company can provide incentives to residents who are willing to cooperate. Based on John's electricity usage habits, Arkreen can pre-charge the energy storage batteries and lower the temperature in his home, and then reverse output power to the grid for the next two days. As a result of this grid dispatch, John receives a reward from the power company. John can also open the Arkreen app and, based on the on-chain data of 900 kWh of solar power generation at home, claim 0.9 Renewable Energy Certificate (REC). These 0.9 REC, along with REC from other users in California, can be bundled and sold to a BTC mining company in South America for the purpose of offsetting the carbon emissions from BTC mining power consumption.

All of these will be the economic value that the Arkreen network can introduce from the real physical world. The generation, purchase, and circulation of green certificates in the Arkreen network are just one use case of the Arkreen network. Once the data is trustworthy, we will see more long applications emerging. Once the energy network is truly digitized based on blockchain, assets such as green certificates and carbon certificates can not only be flexibly divided but also have no geographical restrictions. They can also play a network effect and efficiently connect with various decentralized finance decentralized financial ecosystems. The history of users' purchase of green certificates and carbon certificates can also be presented in the form of non-fungible tokens in their on-chain identity.

With the vigorous development of various Web3 applications, the number of users with on-chainWallet or identity will become longer and longer, and the threshold for use will be lower and lower until they are completely insensitive. After opening the Arkreen APP, users (institutions or individuals) can easily purchase any number of green certificates at any time with a certain currency stablecoin or ETH in their wallet to offset their carbon footprint. The green certificates held and destroyed by users are visible across the network, thus becoming part of their reputation in the digital world. You can imagine that under the existing energy data network and green certificate certification process, the process of using Web2 Internet to purchase a green certificate will be cumbersome, and it will be even more difficult to prove "carbon neutrality" by yourself. If demand cannot be stimulated, supply will not be able to rise effectively, and the goal of global carbon neutrality will not be achieved.

The Arkreen team members come from industries such as internet of things, digital security, and blockchain, and have successful global cases in business models, product design, engineering implementation, etc.

The myth of getting rich quick with MEME and BRC20 in this round has caused many friends to regret and reflect on where they went wrong, making them feel frustrated.

Many people say it's because of prejudice, they look down on things like meme tokens, only like to play some valuable support of the serious projects, resulting in missed opportunities.

Speaking of not being interested in prejudice, I basically don't pay attention. Even if others are bullish, I don't take it seriously. Why? There is a very important reason, there are still many things of my own that have not been completed. Before doing what needs to be done, I will cherish my attention very much.

Moreover, seizing opportunities is not a simple task. Rather than relying on luck, I believe in being prepared. As long as the preparation is sufficient, luck becomes almost inevitable.

So is it prejudice to say that this opportunity cannot be seized? I don't think so. If it is purely caused by prejudice, it means that the person involved does have strong comprehensive ability, and can seize the opportunity with just a thought. It's like being a complete Versailles, isn't it?

Can we take a look at those stories of getting rich overnight? Is their entire money-making logic achievable as long as you have no bias?

No, it's not.

For example, timely information channels, first-hand operation at the first time, timely cashing out and holding, chase the market, chase competitors, this series of operations involves complex factors and cannot be replicated.

And a person's review process is easy to be subjective, and many decisive details are ignored, such as luck factor, coupled with media rendering, we often only follow the results, resulting in the illusion that if I had done that at that time, I would have been fine.

If I don't talk about the harm of prejudice, I can actually find a lot of rationality in prejudice for everyone.

First of all, it is understandable to have feelings of regret. The opportunities in the crypto world are so long that we cannot catch them all. It is very normal to miss big opportunities. It can be said that if you want to regret, the crypto world will give you the capital to regret every day.

Then prejudice I can also understand, everyone has their own way of making money and values, sometimes prejudice can be beneficial.

Prejudice can focus on familiar things and block out things you don't understand, thereby reinforcing your preferred way of making money.

There are four issues in trading that need to be addressed. If any one of them has a loophole, it will definitely be exploited by the market, and being hit is only a matter of time.

1. Confirm the trend (judgment of long or short)

2, find the get on board location

3、Set take profitstop loss

4. Fund Management

Today we talk about the last one, fund management. If we compare it to a car, controlling the weight of the position is like controlling the speed of the car. When driving on a flat road, it is natural to drive faster and the risk is lower; when driving on a bumpy road, if the speed is too fast, it is easy to cause traffic accidents.

So, how to reasonably control the Position is a highly technical activity. Quantitative Hedging is like the steering wheel of a car. If used well, it can smooth the fund curve and also reduce the drawdown of funds.

Take profit and stop loss are like the brake system of a car: when encountering danger, immediately hit the brake, that is, close all positions, which is stop loss;

The road is too good, the car is too fast, it is easy to be dangerous, so you need to slow down, that is, gradually Close Position, this is take profit. Therefore, to drive a car well, you must skillfully control the steering wheel, speedometer, brakes, and accelerator.

Position in general fund products is usually around 30%.

Positions below 20% are referred to as 'extremely safe positions'.

20%~40% of the Position is called "moderate safety Position";

More than 40% of the Position is called "high risk Position".

This is equivalent to the speed of a car. 20% of the Position is equivalent to a speed within 40 miles per hour, and 40% of the Position is equivalent to a speed of 100 miles per hour.

If the road is safe, the car can drive at a speed of over 100 miles per hour; if in urban areas or mountain roads, it is best to reduce the speed to 40 miles per hour or even 20 miles per hour.

In a wave of market fluctuations, there are usually three methods to increase the position:

Pyramid increase the position strategy, inverted pyramid increase the position strategy, and uniform increase the position strategy.

1. Pyramid Buying Method

The Position is the largest when Build a Position for the first time, and the quantity of each increase the position is less than the previous one (the reduction quantity varies from person to person).

2. Pyramid Accumulation Method

The first time Position is built, the Position is the smallest, and each subsequent increase in the position is larger than the previous long (the increase amount varies from person to person).

3, Uniform Incremental Positioning Method

The quantity of the first Build a Position and each subsequent increase the position is the same.

There is also a rhombus Position method, which divides each round of the market into three Build a Position, with the first and last Position being small, and the middle one being larger;

The initial Position for the account is: 3%, 5%, 3%;

When the account is profitable by 5-15%, increase the Position, and the opening rate each time is: 5%, 8%, 5%;

When the account profit is 15-25%, continue to increase the Position. The opening rate each time is: 10%, 15%, 10%; When the account profit is 25-45%, start reducing the Position. The opening rate each time becomes: 10%, 10%, 5%; When the account profit is above 60%, continue to drop the Position. The opening rate each time is: 5%, 10%, 5%;

If the account starts with a loss, reduce the opening rate to: 2%, 3%, 2%; or even Build a Position only 2 times, each time at 2%; 01928374656574839201

What is the essence of this diamond-shaped position-adding method?

1. Increase fault tolerance with lower initial position. Most people experience large drawdowns due to excessively large or aggressive positions.

2. When making a mistake, drop the position size to avoid being affected by unfavorable conditions and emotions, ensuring survival and longevity.

3. After making the right moves, with profits and a safety cushion, you can be appropriately aggressive and expand your gains faster;

4. After achieving good results, start to be subtle, drop risk and drop drawdown; of course, individual investors do not need to completely copy this operation method, but to learn the excellent concept behind this method and decide according to their own willingness to take risks based on their own financial situation!

Today's article ends here. If you think it's well written, you can give it a follow and keep an eye on it~

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