Gate.io Blog Daily News | The Trading Volume of BTC Spot ETFs on the First Day of Listing Was $4.6 Billion; The Probability of Obtaining Approval for ETH Spot ETFs in May is 70%

Daily News | The Trading Volume of BTC Spot ETFs on the First Day of Listing Was $4.6 Billion; The Probability of Obtaining Approval for ETH Spot ETFs in May is 70%

12 January 11:58

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## Crypto Daily Digest: The trading volume of ETFs on the first day of listing reached $4.6 billion, the market hype is shifting towards Ethereum
Dear Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange, Decentralized Financial Research Advisor Analyst, Chicago Futures Exchange and US Stock Traders, Wall Street Elite, good morning! With the official listing of <a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> spot ETFs, the market begins to frenzy.

On the early morning of January 12th, the trading volume of the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) officially exceeded $1 billion, which broke the trading record of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETFs (BITO). Meanwhile, the trading volume of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States reached $4.6 billion on the first day of listing, with a total of 5 Bitcoin spot ETFs, including GBTC, trading volume exceeding $100 million.

According to Coingecko data, the daily trading volume of Bitcoin on crypto exchanges reached $52 billion. This is the highest level since March 21st last year.

JPMorgan Chase has stated that spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the United States are not expected to attract a significant amount of new capital. Instead, they may attract up to $36 billion in existing crypto instruments.

The JPMorgan analyst team stated that this data includes inflows of $3 billion from Bitcoin futures-based ETFs, inflows of $3 billion to $13 billion from GBTC, and a maximum of $15 billion to $20 billion for retail investors transitioning from crypto exchange/retail broker digital wallets to spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated in an interview that, excluding companies and real estate, it is roughly estimated that she has at least 25% of her financial net assets on Bitcoin. And it is stated that with the increase of ETFs, Bitcoin will rise to around $1.5 million around 2030.

On the other hand, Anthony Scaramucci, founder and CEO of well-known venture capital SkyBridge Capital, said in an interview with CNBC, "We are starting to plan to purchase US Bitcoin spot ETFs. The SEC's approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs should be seen as a watershed for Bitcoin. Bitcoin may reach a historic high by the end of this year and may break through this historical high by this time next year."

Investment banking giant UBS Group will allow some customers to trade Bitcoin spot ETFs. Sources have revealed that the prerequisite for the transaction is that UBS cannot solicit transactions, and accounts with lower risk tolerance cannot participate in the transaction.

Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett tweeted that Merrill Lynch currently does not support Bitcoin spot ETF trading. According to sources, Merrill Lynch is observing the effectiveness of ETF trading before deciding whether to change its internal policy that currently does not allow such products. Merrill Lynch is one of the world's largest securities retailers and investment banks, headquartered in New York.

Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on the X platform stating that with the successful passage of Bitcoin spot ETFs, all major term IVs have shown significant declines, with short-term IV falling below 70% and medium term IV falling below 60%. Although the market experienced significant fluctuations as expected, it did not meet the expectations of both bulls and bears, neither soaring to new highs nor experiencing a significant drop in profits. The market hype has shifted towards <a href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a>, which has once again led the market after several consecutive months of downturn.

The Denchun upgrade is gradually approaching, and it is reported that the Denchun upgrade for Ethereum will be activated on the Goerli testnet at 14:32 on January 17, 2024 (Beijing time) according to the official blog of the Ethereum Foundation.

This upgrade is another significant step after last year's Shapella upgrade, which will introduce multiple changes. The most significant change among them is the implementation of EIP-4844, which introduces temporary data blobs (also known as "protodanksharding") aimed at reducing second layer (L2) transaction costs.

The US SEC will conduct decision approval for five Ethereum spot ETFs by the end of May. They will conduct a decision approval process for the iShares Ethereum Trust and Fidelity Ethereum Fund launched by Balckrock and Fidelity before January 21st and January 25th, but the final decision can be postponed until August.

In addition, the final decision deadline for three Ethereum spot ETFs that have already submitted applications is the end of May 2024, before which the US SEC needs to make a final decision on approval or not. They are respectively due to VanEck Ethereum ETF, Ark 21Shares Ethereum ETF, and Hashdex Ethereum ETF, with final deadlines on May 23, May 24, and May 30.

According to Cointelgraph, the SEC must also make a decision on Grayscale's application before June 18th and Invesco's application before July 5th. The applications of Fidelity and Blackrock must be decided before August 3rd and August 7th. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimates that the likelihood of ETH spot ETFs being approved in May is 70%.

During the AMA event on Reddit, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin suggested raising the gas limit of the Ethereum network to 40 million to increase network throughput. Vitalik stated that the Gas limit has not been raised for nearly three years, which is the longest time in the history of Ethereum. According to Etherscan's data, the current gas limit is 30 million, which means an increase of 33%.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, giant whales continue to accumulate ETH. Two hours ago, starting with 0xAA15, the giant whale once again extracted 5,762 ETHs (approximately $15.06 million) from Binance. Since then, the giant whale has purchased $50,733 ETH (approximately $99.2 million) at an average price of $1,955 since September 19, 2023.

Two hours ago, starting with 0x9314, the giant whale spent 7.29 million USDT to purchase 2800 ETHs again. Since January 1, 2023, the whale has purchased 82780 ETHs at an average price of $1,816 (approximately $150.3 million).

## Macro: CPI exceeded expectations, it is basically confirmed to maintain interest rates unchanged in January and February
On Thursday, the inflation data exceeded expectations, initially weakening the market's bet on the Federal Reserve's March interest rate cut. The US dollar index jumped during the day, but later gave up all gains due to the expected rebound in interest rate cuts, ultimately closing down 0.038% at 102.32. The collective decline in US bond yields was led by the decline in short-term yields. After the release of the 10-year US Treasury yield CPI data, it stood above the 4% mark and fell again during trading, ultimately closing at 3.975%; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates, fell more than 10 basis points on the day and closed at 4.249%.

Impacted by the unexpected rebound of CPI, spot gold wiped out the intraday increase of over 1% and hit the lowest point of 2013.21, breaking a one month low. In the end, it rebounded and finally closed up 0.21% at $2028.71 per ounce. Spot silver ultimately closed down 0.65% at $22.75 per ounce.

Due to the risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East offsetting the impact of rising CPI, international crude oil has rebounded. WTI crude oil rose 2.15% to close at $72.78 per barrel; Brent crude oil rose 1.98% to $78.21 per barrel.

The three major US stock indexes are close to closing flat. Digital currency concept stocks plummeted on the first day of listing on Bitcoin spot ETFs, with Coinbase (COIN. O) closing 6.6% lower, Marathon Digital (MARA. O) falling 12.6%, and Riot Blockchain (RIOT. O) falling over 15%.

Due to the December CPI data exceeding expectations, Federal Reserve officials have begun to report.

Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester's interest rate cut in March is too early, and discussions on adjusting the balance sheet tightening measures will begin this year; Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin reiterated that he will not predict a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March and stated that he will closely monitor PCE data for 1-3 months.

According to Wall Street's previous expectations, an early rate cut in March this year is now unlikely, which means that Wall Street's optimistic predictions need to be corrected. Federal Reserve officials have always emphasized that there is a high probability of only three rate cuts in 2024, but the market has predicted six. Therefore, this information will continue to ferment, and the market will eventually find a balance point.

According to the latest data from CME's Federal Reserve Watch, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in the 5.25% -5.50% range in January is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%; The probability of maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% in February is 99.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 0.5%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by March is 33.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 65.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Byron B.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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Daily News | The Trading Volume of BTC Spot ETFs on the First Day of Listing Was $4.6 Billion; The Probability of Obtaining Approval for ETH Spot ETFs in May is 70%

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